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Ripple Labs has made a significant move towards deeper integration into the global financial system by applying for a national bank
with the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC). This application, announced by CEO Brad Garlinghouse, underscores the company’s long-standing commitment to regulatory compliance. already holds a BitLicense from the New York Department of Financial Services, allowing it to operate legally within one of the world’s toughest crypto jurisdictions. Approval of a federal banking charter would subject Ripple to both state and federal oversight, a rare achievement for a crypto-native firm.Analysts suggest that these approvals could legitimize Ripple alongside major banks and significantly boost XRP’s adoption. Valuation models estimate that XRP could reach between $10 and $22 if Ripple captures even a fraction of SWIFT’s volume, stablecoin flows, or tokenized asset markets. To assess how the banking license could influence XRP’s valuation, four models were reviewed, each exploring scenarios based on institutional adoption, stablecoin growth, asset tokenization, and network utility.
The first model, the Institutional Utility Model, assumes Ripple captures one-tenth of SWIFT’s estimated $150 trillion annual transaction volume. Accounting for a velocity factor, the model concludes that $600 billion worth of XRP liquidity would be needed, implying a potential price near $10.91 per token. This projection does not include speculative buying, making it a conservative baseline.
In the RLUSD + Fed Access scenario, Ripple’s stablecoin adoption mirrors USDC’s market cap of around $32 billion. Assuming XRP bridges half of RLUSD’s annual transactions, approximately $100 billion, and layering in a regulatory trust premium, the analysis suggests a price of roughly $13.65.
The Tokenization Market-Share Model considers the booming market for tokenized real-world assets, expected to exceed $16 trillion by 2030. Capturing even a 3% slice and leveraging on-chain settlement could see XRP need to support $120 billion of liquidity, and with institutional demand factored in, price estimates approach $21.80.
Finally, the Network-Value-to-Transaction (NVT) Model ties market capitalization directly to projected daily settlement volumes on RippleNet, assuming $30 billion of daily flows once banks adopt XRP at scale. Using a typical NVT ratio of 25-30, this model forecasts a total network value near $900 billion, translating to an XRP price of about $16.36.
Ripple’s regulatory efforts come as global banks and regulators intensify discussions around central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and tokenized assets. Analysts have highlighted that fully compliant, regulated stablecoins could become the preferred means for cross-border settlements, potentially reducing reliance on SWIFT and correspondent banking relationships. The Bank for International Settlements has urged closer oversight of stablecoins to prevent systemic risks, reinforcing the importance of Ripple’s strategy to secure federal approval and direct Fed access.
Ripple’s pursuit of a national bank charter and a Federal Reserve master account represents one of the most ambitious efforts yet by a crypto firm to embed itself within the U.S. banking system. While XRP’s price has yet to reflect the long-term potential, institutional-grade infrastructure and regulatory clarity could ultimately transform Ripple’s role in the global financial ecosystem, paving the way for broader XRP adoption and a reimagined landscape for stablecoins.

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