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Ripple National Trust Bank has made a significant move towards regulatory legitimacy by applying for a U.S. national bank charter with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC). This application, submitted on July 2, 2025, aims to position
as the first federally licensed crypto firm, subject to oversight under the GENIUS Act. This act requires major stablecoins, such as Ripple's USD-pegged RLUSD, to adhere to strict banking standards. The move is part of Ripple's strategy to resolve a $125 million SEC penalty from a 2020 securities lawsuit and pave the way for institutional adoption of its cross-border payment platform, RippleNet.In parallel, Ripple's subsidiary, Standard Custody, has applied for a Federal Reserve master account. This move would grant Ripple direct access to the Fed's payment systems, eliminating the need for third-party banks and reducing costs. This access would also bolster trust in RLUSD reserves, as it would provide a more transparent and secure method for managing the stablecoin's backing. The potential approval of these applications could significantly enhance Ripple's operational efficiency and credibility in the financial sector.
Ripple's entry into the global remittance market with RLUSD is a strategic move aimed at disrupting the $685 billion remittance industry. By offering faster, more efficient, and cost-effective cross-border payment solutions, Ripple seeks to capture a significant share of this market. The regulatory advancements and the potential approval of a spot ETF for XRP could further fuel this disruption, as institutional investors may be more inclined to adopt Ripple's technology.
The regulatory progress aligns with another critical catalyst: the pending approval of XRP spot ETFs. If approved, these ETFs could unlock up to $20 billion in institutional capital, mirroring the impact of Bitcoin's ETFs. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) already launched XRP futures in May, and the SEC's recent shift toward conditional crypto ETF approvals bodes well for XRP. Analysts project short-term targets at $2.38, with a long-term aim of reclaiming the 2021 all-time high of $3.80. Bullish scenarios suggest a $21.50 price tag by late 2026—a 900% upside from current levels—if institutional inflows materialize.
However, the path to regulatory approval is not without challenges. Critics point to declining XRP transaction volumes—a 20% drop year-over-year—as a red flag. Yet this overlooks a structural shift: XRP's utility is evolving from a retail-focused cryptocurrency to a corporate bridge asset. Over 50 countries are exploring central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), and Ripple's On-Demand Liquidity (ODL) system—using XRP for instant cross-border settlements—is gaining traction with institutions like Bank of
. The tension here is clear: While retail use wanes, corporate treasuries are adopting XRP as a low-cost alternative to traditional wire transfers. This dual narrative creates uncertainty but also asymmetric upside for those focused on the long game.The OCC's approval is far from certain. Regulators may balk at Ripple's XRP holdings, which could fail to qualify as regulatory capital under Basel III banking rules. Competitors like USDC (now backed by a federally chartered trust) and central bank-backed digital currencies also loom large. Additionally, macroeconomic volatility—such as rising interest rates or a global recession—could depress crypto prices broadly. The SEC's potential delays or demands for revisions to the charter application could also prolong uncertainty.
For the risk-tolerant investor, this dip presents a rare opportunity to accumulate XRP at a valuation that discounts its potential as a CBDC bridge asset and regulated stablecoin issuer. However, this is not a short-term trade. Investors should set strict stop-losses (e.g., below $2) to mitigate volatility, average into positions as regulatory milestones are met (e.g., OCC approval, ETF approval), and focus on the 3–5-year horizon, where XRP's role in global payments could justify a $100 billion market cap.

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