XRP News Today: Ripple vs. SEC Likely to Settle with $50 Million Penalty

Crypto lawyer Fred Rispoli has provided insights into the ongoing Ripple vs. SEC case, suggesting that despite recent leadership changes, the SEC's approach remains largely unchanged. Rispoli predicts that the most likely outcome is a settlement between the two parties, with Ripple agreeing to a reduced penalty, estimated to be around $50 million. This settlement would leave Judge Torres’ previous summary judgment and permanent injunction in place.

Rispoli believes that the SEC will communicate, either publicly or privately, that Ripple can continue its business operations as long as it remains transparent and avoids the institutional sales that were previously ruled as violations. He also noted that Judge Torres' denial of the first motion to soften the penalties indicated frustration with the prolonged case or possibly political motivations. Rispoli argues that both Ripple and the SEC failed to present stronger arguments in their follow-up, with the SEC unwilling to publicly admit any wrongdoing from the Gensler era.

Rispoli's analysis suggests that the SEC's culture has not shifted significantly, and the agency will continue to protect its own interests regardless of the administration in charge. He doubts that the SEC will drop its appeal in a way that would benefit Ripple, predicting instead that both parties will settle to avoid further legal battles. The injunction, according to Rispoli, will not impact XRP trading on secondary markets or block a potential XRP ETF, as it only matters if the SEC chooses to enforce it.

Ripple's legal chief, Stuart Alderoty, referred to “historic institutional sales” in his comments, signaling a shift in Ripple's stance. This language suggests that Ripple is distancing itself from the practices criticized by Judge Torres and is making it clear that its current institutional sales do not fall into the same category. Rispoli believes that both sides are now preparing to move on, with the SEC preserving face through the injunction and a reduced fine, and Ripple gaining clarity on how to operate going forward without further legal overhang.

In summary, Rispoli's analysis indicates that while the Ripple vs. SEC case may be nearing a resolution, real change at the SEC, especially regarding crypto, is still far off. The case highlights the SEC's continued approach to protecting its own interests and the likelihood of a settlement that benefits both parties without significant changes in the agency's stance on crypto regulation.