XRP News Today: Regulatory Uncertainty and Institutional Exodus Trigger XRP's 42% Plunge

XRP experienced a sharp 42% decline in October 2025, plunging to $1.64 before partially recovering to $2.36. The selloff was driven by large-scale liquidations, with institutional futures open interest shrinking by $150 million, and 320 million XRP transferred to exchange wallets in the preceding week, signaling whale distribution pressure. Trading volumes surged 164% above the 30-day average, indicating forced deleveraging across corporate desks. The price drop coincided with the expiration of Ripple's National Trust charter, heightening regulatory uncertainty for XRP-linked products XRP Crashes 40%, Before Recovering, in Biggest One-Day Drop^[1].

Technical indicators painted a bearish picture. A descending triangle pattern on the 4-hour chart broke down below $2.74, with the 20 EMA crossing below the 50 EMA-a "death cross" often signaling prolonged weakness. On-chain data revealed a spike in dormant circulation among medium-term holders, suggesting increased selling activity. The Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio also spiked, indicating XRP's valuation outpaced its network activity, a common precursor to overvaluation .

Market sentiment turned increasingly bearish. The Fear & Greed Index hit 24 (extreme fear), while the RSI fell to multi-month lows, signaling oversold conditions. Analyst Peter Brandt warned of a potential 50% drop in XRP's market cap by year-end, citing a head-and-shoulders pattern and declining volume. "XRP is forming a textbook H&S setup. Below $1.90, I would not want to own it," he stated Technical Analyst Warns Ripple's XRP Price Could Drop^[3]. CoinCodex's algorithmic forecasts aligned with this outlook, projecting a 19.27% drop by December 2025 and a $2.39 price target XRP (XRP) Price Prediction 2025, 2026-2030 - CoinCodex^[4].

Regulatory risks remained a focal point. Ripple's CEO, Brad Garlinghouse, confirmed no IPO plans in 2025, prioritizing product development over public markets. This contrasted with industry trends, as firms like Kraken and Ciecle prepared for listings. Garlinghouse noted that regulatory clarity post-Ripple's court victory could influence long-term adoption but emphasized no immediate urgency Technical Analyst Warns Ripple's XRP Price Could Drop^[3].

Despite the sell-off, on-chain accumulation below $2.40 suggested value-based repositioning by long-term holders. The price stabilized near $2.35–$2.40 in late October, with algos breaking $2.35 on sustained bids. However, sustained recovery depended on rebuilding open interest in derivatives markets and confirming a breakout above $2.90 to invalidate short-term bearish bias XRP Crashes 40%, Before Recovering, in Biggest One-Day Drop^[1].

Traders closely monitored three key scenarios:

1. : Would test support at $2.22, potentially extending the decline to $1.

2. : Targets $2.35–$2.48, contingent on renewed institutional demand.

3. : A favorable outcome in Ripple's SEC case could trigger a summer rally, aligning with historical altcoin seasonality XRP Price Warning: 50% Crash or Summer Comeback?^[2].

The broader market context added complexity. While Bitcoin's rally to $125,000 drew capital inflows, XRP lagged, trading at 5.54% of the crypto market cap. Competitors like Binance Coin (BNB) outperformed, surging 67% year-to-date due to ecosystem growth and token burns. XRP's 24% gain for 2025 paled in comparison, highlighting its struggle to regain momentum amid shifting investor preferences .