XRP News Today: Regulators May Soon Unlock $5B in XRP Demand

Spot XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) approvals are gaining momentum ahead of an anticipated decision by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in October 2025, with analysts suggesting that the approval could unlock significant capital inflows into XRP-related products. According to Nate Geraci, co-founder of the ETF Institute and President of the ETF Store, the demand for XRP ETFs has been significantly underestimated by the market. Geraci cited parallels with the initial underestimation of demand for spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, which eventually saw substantial inflows following their approvals [1].

Market data indicates that the chances of XRP ETF approval have increased dramatically. On Polymarket, the probability of an approval stood at 87% as of early September 2025, up from 64% in August [2]. This growing optimism is supported by recent updates from XRP ETF applicants, who revised their filings to meet regulatory requirements. Bloomberg’s ETF analysts had previously estimated a 95% chance of approval in August, underscoring the strong expectations for a favorable decision by the SEC [1].

In terms of potential market impact, analysts have projected substantial inflows into XRP ETFs. Canary Capital CEO Steve McClurg predicted up to $5 billion in inflows within the first month of XRP ETF trading, while JPMorgan analysts forecasted up to $8 billion in inflows over the first year [1]. These figures reflect the growing institutional and retail interest in XRP, driven by a combination of regulatory progress and broader crypto market dynamics. For context, existing XRP ETFs such as those launched by Teucrium have already attracted $353 million in net assets, signaling strong demand for structured exposure to the asset [1].

From a technical perspective, XRP has shown signs of a potential breakout. The price formed a falling wedge pattern, which is often associated with a bullish continuation. The token has also found support at key technical levels, including the 100-day moving average. Analysts suggest that a price breakout above $3 could lead to further gains, with a target of $5 or higher in the coming months [3]. This technical setup aligns with the broader bullish sentiment surrounding XRP, particularly as the SEC’s decision deadline approaches.

The legal landscape has also evolved in favor of XRP. The SEC’s ongoing litigation with Ripple has seen key court rulings that have clarified XRP’s status in specific transactions. For instance, a 2023 court ruling stated that XRP is not a security for retail investors who purchase it on exchanges, a development that has bolstered the case for ETF approval. Additionally, the SEC’s recent focus on fast-tracking crypto ETF applications has increased the likelihood of a timely decision for XRP [5]. This regulatory clarity, combined with the growing number of XRP ETF applications—over a dozen are under review—has further fueled market optimism.

Despite the positive outlook, risks remain. The SEC has a history of extending decision timelines, and a delay is still possible. Moreover, broader market conditions could influence the performance of XRP even if ETFs are approved. Analysts caution that while past ETF approvals for Bitcoin and Ethereum were followed by significant price gains, the same outcome is not guaranteed for XRP. The asset’s performance will depend on a combination of regulatory outcomes, market sentiment, and macroeconomic factors [7].

Overall, the market is closely watching the SEC’s upcoming decision, particularly for the Grayscale and Canary ETF applications, which are due by October 18 and October 24, respectively [4]. If approvals are granted, XRP could experience a surge in institutional investment and liquidity, similar to the impact seen with Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. The potential for an XRP ETF to reach $4–$5 or even $10 remains a topic of discussion among analysts, though the actual outcome will depend on a range of factors, including regulatory decisions and market dynamics.

Source:

[1] XRP ETF approval seen to unlock $5bn bonanza, but 'people...' (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/xrp-etf-approval-seen-unlock-121250497.html)

[2] How High Will XRP's Price Go if All Ripple ETFs Are... (https://cryptopotato.com/how-high-will-xrps-price-go-if-all-ripple-etfs-are-approved-in-2025-3-ais-give-big-predictions/)

[3] What's next for XRP price as ETF approval chances hit 87%? (https://crypto.news/whats-next-for-xrp-price-as-etf-approval-chances-hit-87)

[4] What to expect from XRP price if the SEC green-lights ETFs (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/ripple-price-forecast-how-the-sec-could-fast-track-approval-of-xrp-etfs-202509021715)

[5] When Will XRP ETF Happen: What Investors Should Know (https://www.bitget.com/wiki/when-will-xrp-etf-happen)

[6] Classic XRP price chart pattern targets $5 as spot ETF... (https://cointelegraph.com/news/classic-xrp-price-chart-pattern-5-spot-etf-reality-draws-closer)

[7] XRP Faces Crucial Test With ETF Approval Chances Now... (https://www.mitrade.com/insights/news/live-news/article-3-1092956-20250904)