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XRP ETF approval is now widely seen as a near-certainty with October 2025 approaching as a key deadline for U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) decisions. Analysts and market participants are increasingly optimistic, citing growing investor interest, updated fund filings, and shifting regulatory trends. According to Nate Geraci, co-founder of the ETF Institute, the potential demand for spot
ETFs has been significantly underestimated, echoing similar patterns seen with and ETF launches [1].The SEC is currently reviewing nearly a dozen XRP ETF applications, part of a broader pool of more than 90 pending crypto ETF proposals. Recent updates to several of these applications have been interpreted as positive signals by analysts like Geraci and Bloomberg’s James Seyffart [1]. On Polymarket, the probability of XRP ETF approval has surged to 87% in recent days, up from a low of 64% in August, reinforcing expectations that the SEC will act in the coming months [2]. A September 3 report from Mitrade also highlighted that XRP is on track to meet key conditions for fast-tracked ETF approval, alongside
[5].Should XRP ETFs receive approval, analysts predict substantial inflows from retail and institutional investors.
analysts previously forecasted up to $8 billion in inflows within the first year, while Canary Capital CEO Steven McClurg recently projected $5 billion in the first month alone [1]. These figures draw comparisons to Bitcoin ETF inflows, which saw nearly $2 billion in the first three trading days. Existing XRP products, such as Teucrium’s leveraged XRP ETF, have already attracted $353 million in net assets, far outpacing the firm’s traditional agro-based ETFs [1]. The CME XRP Futures contract has also drawn over $1 billion in open interest, the fastest to reach that milestone [2].However, not all analysts share the bullish outlook. Skeptics argue that XRP lacks the strong narrative or utility that has driven Bitcoin and Ethereum’s adoption. On social media, crypto analyst AdrianoFeria.eth warned that an XRP ETF could signal the token’s decline if it fails to attract institutional demand [4]. Critics point to XRP’s absence of a decentralized finance (DeFi) infrastructure or widespread use in decentralized applications, unlike Ethereum. Despite these concerns, proponents highlight XRP’s role in cross-border payments and efficiency, suggesting it could appeal to
seeking cost-effective transaction solutions [3].The broader regulatory environment is also shifting in favor of ETF approvals. In July, major exchanges including
, NASDAQ, and NYSE Arca proposed rule changes to fast-track crypto ETF approvals under a three-condition framework, which XRP is expected to meet by September 20 [5]. These changes could reduce the typical 240-day approval process, potentially accelerating XRP’s path to market. With several XRP ETF applications scheduled for decisions in October and November, the coming months could determine whether XRP secures a permanent place in mainstream financial portfolios [3].Source:
[1] XRP ETF approval seen to unlock $5bn bonanza, but 'people...' (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/xrp-etf-approval-seen-unlock-121250497.html)
[2] What's next for XRP price as ETF approval chances hit 87%? (https://crypto.news/whats-next-for-xrp-price-as-etf-approval-chances-hit-87)
[3] XRP ETF Approval Timeline: October and November Could ... (https://coinpedia.org/news/xrp-etf-approval-timeline-october-and-november-could-change-everything/)
[4] Crypto analyst warns XRP ETF will mark 'beginning of the end' (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/crypto-analyst-warns-xrp-etf-193131671.html)
[5] How the SEC could fast-track approval of XRP ETFs (https://www.mitrade.com/insights/news/live-news/article-3-1089437-20250903)
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