XRP News Today: Regulators Hold Fate of XRP's $5 Breakout in Their Hands

XRP is approaching a pivotal moment with the probability of approval for a spot ETF reaching 87% as of August 2025, according to market data. Analysts are closely monitoring key price levels and technical indicators that could signal a breakout, with some anticipating a move toward $5. The formation of a bull flag pattern on the daily chart suggests that a breach of key resistance at $3 could lead to a 77% increase from the current price. This pattern, a common continuation pattern in technical analysis, indicates a period of consolidation following a sharp price rise, with expectations for an upward movement once the resistance is confirmed. The price must close above $3 to validate the pattern, a threshold currently constrained by the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $3.08 and a prior high of $3.66.

Support levels remain critical to maintaining the bullish structure. The area between the 100-day and 200-day SMA, which are currently at $2.68 and $2.48, respectively, are seen as key defenses for XRP. Analysts note that a drop below $2.75 could lead to a retest of the $2.5–$2.6 confluence zone before another upward push. If XRP can hold above this level, it avoids invalidating the bull flag setup and maintains the possibility of a larger rally. The market is particularly watching the Aug. 3 low of $2.75 as a crucial price point for confirming the continuation of the upward trend.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is expected to make critical decisions on XRP ETF applications between October 18 and November 14. Ripple's legal victory in 2024, which clarified XRP's non-security status, has helped facilitate this process, with 11 proposals currently under review. Market participants are optimistic about the regulatory timeline, with Polymarket data showing an 87% probability of approval by the end of 2025. The likelihood of approval has risen significantly from 64% in early August, reflecting growing confidence among investors and analysts alike. Nate Geraci of the ETF Store estimates the odds to be closer to 100%, while Eric Balchunas of Bloomberg has cited a 95% probability based on regulatory clarity and leadership changes at the SEC.

The potential approval of an XRP ETF is seen as a major catalyst for increased institutional demand. Steven McClurg of Canary Capital has predicted that the ETF could generate $5 billion in inflows within its first month, surpassing both Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. This optimism is grounded in XRP’s utility in cross-border transactions and its integration into the existing financial infrastructure. Unlike speculative assets, XRP is already used by banks and financial institutions to facilitate faster and more cost-effective money transfers, providing a strong use case that could attract long-term investors.

However, not all analysts share this bullish outlook. AdrianoFeria.eth has expressed skepticism, warning that an XRP ETF could expose the token’s weaknesses rather than boost its institutional appeal. Critics argue that XRP lacks the narrative strength of Bitcoin or Ethereum, which are seen as foundational pillars of the crypto market. The debate highlights the broader uncertainty around the token’s role in the evolving ETF landscape, with differing views on whether XRP can achieve the same level of success as its more prominent counterparts.

As the XRP ETF decision date approaches, the market remains focused on both technical price movements and regulatory developments. A successful ETF launch could mark a new chapter for XRP, potentially driving institutional interest and reshaping its position in the crypto market. With regulatory hurdles diminishing and approval odds rising, the next few weeks could determine the token’s trajectory in the coming months.

Source:

[1] Classic XRP price chart pattern targets $5 as spot ETF reality draws closer (https://cointelegraph.com/news/classic-xrp-price-chart-pattern-5-spot-etf-reality-draws-closer)

[2] Crypto analyst warns XRP ETF will mark 'beginning of the end' (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/crypto-analyst-warns-xrp-etf-193131671.html)

[3] XRP ETF Launch Is On The Horizon: Experts Share Their ... (https://www.mitrade.com/insights/news/live-news/article-3-1089957-20250903)