XRP News Today: October ETF Ruling: XRP's Critical Inflection Point for $10 Surge

XRP's price trajectory in October 2025 has become a focal point for investors, with regulatory developments and institutional adoption driving speculation about its potential to reach $10. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is expected to rule on spot XRP ETF applications by late October, a decision that could catalyze significant market inflows. Ripple's pending national banking charter application to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) further adds to the anticipation, as approval would solidify the company's legitimacy in the financial sector.

The ETF approval process has drawn comparisons to Bitcoin's 2021 surge, where regulatory clarity led to sustained price appreciation. XRP's smaller market capitalization relative to Bitcoin could amplify the impact of ETF-driven demand, according to analysts. Institutional investors, including asset managers and pension funds, have expressed interest in XRP, with inflows into XRP-based investment vehicles reaching $93 million in the week leading up to October. This contrasts sharply with outflows from Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, highlighting XRP's unique appeal.

Technical indicators suggest a mixed outlook. XRP recently rebounded from a 41% intraday crash to $1.64, stabilizing above $2.47 as institutional buyers absorbed panic selling. The token is now trading near $2.88, consolidating within a rising channel and approaching key resistance levels at $3.00–$3.10. A breakout above $3.10 could target $3.60–$3.62, while a breakdown below $2.75 risks a pullback to $2.40. Whale activity, including 120 million XRP accumulated in three days, further signals confidence in a near-term catalyst, likely tied to ETF approvals.

AI-driven analyses from platforms like ChatGPT and Gemini underscore XRP's dependence on regulatory outcomes. While Ethereum is projected to reach $10,000 before XRP hits $10, the latter's trajectory hinges on U.S. regulatory clarity and cross-border payment adoption. Ripple's $1.2 billion acquisition of Hidden Road, a prime brokerage firm, has bolstered institutional trust, with some analysts suggesting this could unlock $10–$16 price targets in the current bull cycle.

However, risks remain. The SEC's cautious stance on crypto ETFs beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum raises the possibility of XRP ETF rejections. Additionally, the OCC's rigorous standards for national banking charters could delay Ripple's approval. Macro factors, including U.S.-China trade tensions and broader market volatility, also pose challenges. For example, a 100% tariff announcement by President Trump triggered a 15:1 ratio of long to short liquidations in XRP futures, underscoring the asset's sensitivity to geopolitical shifts.

Long-term forecasts vary widely. ChatGPT predicts a $10–$50 range for XRP by 2026–2030, contingent on a crypto bull market and institutional adoption. More conservative models from Google Gemini and Changelly extend timelines to 2028–2040. A $10 price target would require a 3.5x move from current levels, aligning with historical crypto rallies but demanding sustained regulatory and macroeconomic tailwinds.

The October 2025 ETF decisions represent a critical inflection point. If approved, the influx of institutional capital could create a supply squeeze, pushing XRP higher. Conversely, rejections or delays may prolong uncertainty. Market participants are closely monitoring technical indicators, including the RSI and MACD, for confirmation of bullish momentum.