XRP News Today: Institutional Bets and XRP's $5 Riddle: Will Supply Overhangs Shatter or Shape the Path?

Analysts are closely monitoring XRP as it approaches a potential turning point in 2025, with speculation intensifying that a spot ETF approval could push the token toward a price of $5 per unit. This forecast, while optimistic, is contingent on several factors, including regulatory developments and market absorption of new supply, particularly following Ripple’s monthly escrow unlock on September 1, 2025, which released an additional 1 billion XRP into circulation. At current price levels near $2.87, this unlock amounts to roughly $2.87 billion in value. While such events are routine, they can create volatility in tight liquidity environments or during periods of heightened market sensitivity.

The September 2025 unlock is seen as a key event for XRP, with estimates suggesting that up to 300 million XRP could become net new supply after relocking a portion. Traders are closely watching how the market absorbs this influx, as even a modest price drop could trigger larger selling pressure. This is underscored by recent market behavior, where a brief delay in the August unlock sparked rumors and short-term price distortions before the market stabilized. Critics argue that recurring unlocks act as a constant overhang on XRP’s price, while supporters see them as a transparent mechanism for controlling supply flow.

Several technical indicators suggest bearish momentum, including a bearish MACD crossover on weekly charts and oversold RSI readings in the mid-40s. Additionally, the 200-day exponential moving average is currently near the $2.50 level, offering potential support if XRP continues to trend downward. Institutional liquidations have also contributed to downward pressure, with $1.9 billion in sales reported since July 2025, despite whale accumulation of 340 million XRP over the past two weeks. This divergence highlights conflicting signals between short-term sellers and long-term buyers.

In the event of a significant price drop, capital is expected to rotate into safer assets such as stablecoins, large-cap cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum, or speculative plays with strong community traction. One such project attracting attention is MAGACOIN FINANCE, which is being positioned as a high-potential early-stage investment with limited supply and a growing community. Retail traders are showing interest in the project due to its potential for asymmetric upside if broader risk appetite remains strong.

The regulatory landscape remains a critical factor in shaping XRP’s trajectory. The ongoing Ripple-SEC case has introduced uncertainty, though the recent filing of 15 XRP ETF applications with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) offers potential upside. Analysts like those at Changelly suggest a conservative price range of $2.74 to $3.17 for September 2025, while more bullish forecasts, such as those from Elon Musk’s Grok AI, anticipate a potential move toward $5 or higher if ETF approval materializes. Standard Chartered and James Crypto Space have also issued higher-end projections, ranging from $5.50 to $9 by the end of 2025.

Despite the volatility, on-chain data reveals liquidity concentrations up to $4.00, suggesting that any recovery move could be amplified if key resistances break. Institutional adoption is also playing a role in supporting XRP, with products like the ProShares Ultra XRP ETF and CME XRP futures attracting significant inflows. Meanwhile, corporate treasuries in Japan and the U.S. are increasingly allocating portions of their funds to XRP, further signaling institutional confidence.

In summary, while XRP faces near-term headwinds, the potential for a significant price move remains tied to regulatory clarity and broader market sentiment. Analysts are closely watching key support levels and on-chain activity to gauge whether the token can stabilize or face further downward pressure. If the market absorbs the new supply and macro conditions remain favorable, XRP could see a rebound toward $3.60 in the medium term, with long-term projections suggesting a path toward $5 or higher if ETF approval and institutional adoption continue to gain momentum.

Source:

[1] MAGACOIN FINANCE and PEPE Highlight Investor Rotation (https://www.digitaljournal.com/pr/news/binary-news-network/bitcoin-ethereum-september-outlook-1210481790.html)

[2] Crypto Exchange Reveals When XRP Price Will Cross $2000 (https://www.mitrade.com/insights/news/live-news/article-3-1093160-20250904)

[3] Can XRP Fall 10% in September 2025? The New Price Predictions and Technical Analysis (https://www.financemagnates.com/trending/can-xrp-price-fall-10-in-september-2025-the-new-price-predictions-and-technical-analysis/)