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XRP, the fourth-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has drawn renewed attention as multiple analysts draw parallels between its current price trajectory and the explosive 2017 rally. Prominent crypto analyst EGRAG CRYPTO, citing historical patterns and technical indicators, has projected that
could surge to $27 in the short term and potentially reach $120 in the long term. This forecast hinges on the cryptocurrency retracing a similar Elliott Wave structure observed during its 2017 bull cycle, where it surged from under $0.00555 to an all-time high of $3.84. EGRAG's analysis suggests XRP is now in Wave 3 of a five-wave pattern, with a projected peak above double digits by summer 2025.Historical data underscores the validity of these comparisons. In 2017, XRP's price skyrocketed 7,085% following a breakout above the 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), a pattern that repeated in 2020–2021 with a 425% rally to $1.96. EGRAG notes that current on-chain activity and institutional inflows mirror these prior cycles. CoinShares data reveals that XRP-related investment products attracted $37.7 million in weekly inflows in early 2025, with year-to-date inflows totaling $214 million-trailing only Ethereum. This momentum is further supported by the cryptocurrency's consolidation around the $2.10–$2.15 range, a critical support zone that, if maintained, could validate the bullish thesis.
The 2017 cycle's structural similarities are amplified by macroeconomic catalysts. EGRAG's timeline suggests a potential $27 target by late July or August 2025, aligning with historical patterns where peak prices emerged eight to ten weeks after a 21 EMA retest. This projection is bolstered by the recent approval of XRP ETF filings and growing institutional interest. For instance, CoinShares reported that XRP's inflows outpaced
and in early 2025, signaling a shift in capital allocation. Analysts like Ali Martinez also highlight short-term technical setups, such as an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern on the one-hour chart, which could propel XRP toward $2.70 if it breaks above the $2.40 neckline.Longer-term forecasts extend beyond 2025, with some analysts envisioning XRP reaching $50 by 2030. These projections are contingent on broader adoption of Ripple's payment solutions and regulatory clarity. The resolution of the SEC vs. Ripple lawsuit in August 2025, which affirmed XRP's non-security status in secondary markets, has removed a key institutional barrier. Additionally, the impending launch of XRP spot ETFs-backed by firms like Bitwise and 21Shares-could drive institutional demand and tighten exchange liquidity. Derivatives markets further price in volatility, with XRP futures open interest hitting a two-year high of $1.8 billion and implied volatility spiking to 95% ahead of key regulatory deadlines.
However, risks remain. A descending triangle pattern on shorter-term charts, historically bearish in 54–70% of cases, warns of a potential breakdown below the $1.80–$2.00 support zone. A breach could send XRP toward the $1 realized price level, aligning with aggregated on-chain data. Furthermore, competition from stablecoins and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) could dilute XRP's utility in cross-border payments, a key driver of its adoption. Analysts caution that while XRP's legal clarity and ETF prospects are bullish, execution risks-such as technical issues with the XRP Ledger's automated market maker-could hinder scalability.
In summary, XRP's trajectory is shaped by a confluence of technical, institutional, and regulatory factors. While short-term targets of $27–$33 are supported by historical parallels and on-chain strength, long-term outcomes depend on real-world adoption and macroeconomic conditions. If the cryptocurrency mirrors its 2017 surge, it could cement its role as a bridge currency in global finance, but volatility and competitive pressures remain critical variables.
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