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The introduction of CFTC-regulated XRP futures on the CME Group's derivatives platform has sparked renewed optimism among industry experts regarding the approval of spot XRP ETFs. The launch of these futures contracts significantly increases the likelihood of spot XRP ETFs being approved, according to Nate Geraci, President of the ETF Store. This sentiment is based on the historical precedent where the establishment of a regulated futures market has often paved the way for the approval of corresponding spot ETFs.
The significance of this development lies in the legal framework established by the Grayscale case against the SEC. In this case, the court ruled that the futures and spot markets are similar, thereby challenging the SEC's ability to reject a spot ETF application on the grounds of market manipulation when a futures market for the same asset already exists. This legal precedent strengthens the argument for the approval of spot XRP ETFs, given the presence of CFTC-regulated XRP futures.
The launch of XRP and Micro XRP futures on the CME Group's platform marks a pivotal moment for the cryptocurrency industry. It not only provides investors with a regulated avenue to trade XRP but also signals a growing institutional acceptance of the digital asset. This development is particularly noteworthy as it comes at a time when several asset managers, including Grayscale, Canary Capital, Bitwise, 21Shares,
, and Franklin Templeton, have filed with the SEC to offer spot XRP ETFs.Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse also commented on the launch of CME XRP futures, describing it as a key institutional milestone for the altcoin. He expressed excitement over Ripple’s prime broker, Hidden Road, clearing the first block trade on CME at the opening. However, it is important to note that the ongoing legal battle between Ripple and the SEC could potentially influence the timeline for the approval of spot XRP ETFs. Legal experts have suggested that the case could drag on for months, although its impact on the ETF approval process remains uncertain.
Despite the ongoing legal proceedings, the market sentiment remains optimistic. According to analysts' forecasts, there is an 83% chance of an XRP ETF being approved this year. This optimism is further bolstered by the fact that the CME XRP futures are now live, providing a regulated and transparent trading environment for XRP. As the cryptocurrency market continues to evolve, the approval of spot XRP ETFs appears to be a matter of time, driven by the establishment of a regulated futures market and the legal precedents set by recent court rulings.

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