XRP News Today: Cardano ETF Approval Odds Rise to 83% Amid Speculation and Uncertain Regulatory Outlook

Experts are raising concerns about the likelihood of an Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) for Cardano (ADA) being approved in the United States, despite recent market speculation and rising odds on platforms like Polymarket. The platform has increased the probability of ADA ETF approval in 2025 to 83%, while Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart and his team estimate a 90% approval probability for a broader range of crypto ETFs, including but not limited to Cardano [1]. However, these remain speculative forecasts and have not been supported by official regulatory filings or statements from the Cardano project.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has been recalibrating its criteria for crypto ETF approvals, particularly concerning the use of derivatives and spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have seen recent regulatory changes. While this has raised hopes for more altcoin ETFs, the specific path for ADA remains unclear, with regulatory conditions potentially complicating the process [2]. Notably, Cardano’s leadership, including co-founder Charles Hoskinson, has not publicly commented on the ETF or price targets like $4, further highlighting the lack of institutional or project-level validation for such forecasts [3].

Despite a bullish technical pattern—a cup-and-handle formation on the 2-week chart—some analysts suggest ADA could rise to $4 if it breaks above the $0.92 level. However, these predictions remain speculative and have not influenced regulatory or institutional action. No ETF-related inflows or filings have been observed, and previous ETF approvals for non-BTC/ETH assets have not resulted in sustained 4x price gains [4]. Analysts remain cautious, with many emphasizing that a neutral-to-bullish trend is more realistic in the short term, rather than immediate catalysts for large price increases.

Market sentiment is also mixed. While some reports cite a 75% approval probability for an ADA ETF, this is lower than the 85% approval odds currently assigned to XRP-based ETFs [5]. Furthermore, even if an ETF is approved, short-term volatility and broader market conditions could prevent ADA from reaching its projected price targets before October’s anticipated decision window.

The broader industry continues to monitor developments closely, but for now, the future of a Cardano ETF remains uncertain. Investors are advised to treat market forecasts with caution, as they lack official confirmation and may not reflect actual regulatory or market outcomes.

Sources:

[1] Coindoo – [https://coindoo.com/market/cardano-price-prediction-can-ada-hit-4-before-etf-decision-in-october/](https://coindoo.com/market/cardano-price-prediction-can-ada-hit-4-before-etf-decision-in-october/)

[2] Bitget – [https://www.bitget.com/news/detail/12560604888476](https://www.bitget.com/news/detail/12560604888476)

[3] Cyprus – [https://cyprus-mail.com/2025/07/31/can-mutuum-finance-mutm-become-the-next-defi-star-while-cardano-ada-falls-another-6](https://cyprus-mail.com/2025/07/31/can-mutuum-finance-mutm-become-the-next-defi-star-while-cardano-ada-falls-another-6)

[4] FXLeaders – [https://www.fxleaders.com/news/2025/08/01/daily-crypto-signals-bitcoin-holds-range-xrp-etf-approval-odds-surge-to-85/](https://www.fxleaders.com/news/2025/08/01/daily-crypto-signals-bitcoin-holds-range-xrp-etf-approval-odds-surge-to-85/)

[5] Bitcoinist.com – [https://bitcoinist.com/ethereum-10b-reserve-xrp-etf-nears-sec-eyes-shift/](https://bitcoinist.com/ethereum-10b-reserve-xrp-etf-nears-sec-eyes-shift/)