XRP News Today: Capstone Predicts SEC to Drop Ripple Case and Approve XRP ETFs in 2025

Capstone Research has released a report suggesting that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is likely to drop its legal case against Ripple and approve spot XRP ETFs in 2025. The analysis, highlighted by crypto researcher SMQKE, identifies the potential resolution of the legal dispute and regulatory approval as key inflection points for XRP’s institutional adoption. The firm explicitly stated, “We expect the SEC to approve spot XRP ETFs this year” and added that the SEC may discontinue its enforcement action against Ripple [1].

The SEC’s case against Ripple, which began in late 2020, centers on allegations that the company engaged in unregistered securities offerings through institutional XRP sales. A partial ruling in July 2023 by Judge Analisa Torres distinguished between institutional and retail sales, with Ripple ordered to pay a $125 million civil penalty but without being found to have violated securities laws in the context of retail transactions [1]. The case remains unresolved, and Capstone forecasts that the SEC may withdraw its appeal, effectively ending the litigation [3].

The firm argues that the dismissal of the SEC case would remove the primary obstacle to the approval of XRP ETFs. This is supported by recent market developments, including Bitwise’s filing of the first S-1 registration for a spot XRP ETF in October 2024. Other firms, including Canary Capital, 21Shares, and WisdomTree, have since followed suit, signaling increasing institutional interest [1]. Market observers, such as Darius Ellis on X, have suggested that regulatory clarity could validate the broader utility-first model in digital assets, potentially accelerating adoption and infrastructure development [3].

An additional perspective comes from former SEC regional director Marc Fagel, cited by X user Mark Mark, who noted that both Ripple and the SEC could agree to drop their appeals ahead of August 15, 2025. This would finalize Judge Torres’s earlier ruling and clarify XRP’s legal status. In this scenario, XRP ETF approvals could follow, removing key impediments to institutional participation. Ripple has also demonstrated readiness for institutional engagement, including over 1,700 non-disclosure agreements with partners and a custody partnership with BNY Mellon for its RLUSD stablecoin [1].

Prediction markets reflect optimism about these developments, with PolyMarket showing an 86% chance of XRP ETF approval in 2025 [3]. Capstone’s dual forecasts—SEC dropping the Ripple case and approving XRP ETFs—align with broader speculation that regulatory alignment and market readiness are nearing convergence.

The potential resolution of the case and the approval of ETFs could have broader implications beyond XRP, as they may reinforce the digital asset sector’s capacity for regulatory compliance and institutional integration. Capstone’s analysis is being closely watched as a possible turning point for XRP and the wider market.

Source:

[1] Times (https://timestabloid.com/capstone-research-we-expect-sec-to-drop-ripple-xrp-case-and-approve-etfs-this-year/)

[2] SMQKE (https://x.com/SMQKEDQG/status/195131****619459326)

[3] Threads (https://www.threads.com/@steve_dibben/post/DM0YJEnipbq/xrp-etf-approval-loading-the-tide-is-turning-fast-for-xrp-capstone-research-just)