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Bloomberg analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas have significantly increased the likelihood of approval for several cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds (ETFs), including those for XRP, Solana, and Litecoin. The odds for these ETFs have been raised to 95%, reflecting a positive shift in regulatory sentiment. This development is attributed to increased engagement from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the existence of Commodity Futures Trading Commission-regulated futures markets for these assets.
The analysts noted that the SEC's acknowledgment of the 19b-4 forms for these applications is a strong indicator that the underlying altcoins are viewed as commodities. This regulatory recognition has bolstered the credibility of these cryptocurrencies, making the approval of their respective ETFs more likely. The analysts also highlighted that the timing of these approvals could vary, with some potentially arriving within weeks or closer to the final deadlines later this year. Most applications have their final SEC decision dates in October and November.
In addition to XRP, Solana, and Litecoin, other cryptocurrencies such as Dogecoin, Cardano, Avalanche, Hedera, and Polkadot have also seen their ETF approval odds rise to 90%. Furthermore, crypto basket or index ETF filings by Grayscale, Hashdex, Bitwise, and Franklin Templeton have been assigned a 95% probability of approval within the next six months. Many of these applications are approaching their final SEC deadlines in early July.
The analysts' decision to raise the approval odds is based on the positive engagement from the SEC, which they view as a very positive sign. Despite the uncertainty around the exact timing of these approvals, the experts believe that it is a matter of when, not if, these ETFs will be approved. This optimism is fueled by the SEC's perceived positive sentiment towards cryptocurrency ETFs, as well as the growing demand for these investment vehicles.
An XRP ETF could significantly enhance liquidity, drawing institutional interest and possibly increasing trading volumes. Analysts predict ripple effects across the crypto sector, influenced by the "when, not if" ethos surrounding ETF approvals. Historically, the approval of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs led to increased asset prices and adoption. Analysts suggest a similar trajectory for XRP and other altcoins could emerge, facilitating broader crypto ecosystem growth. The SEC's shift may alter the regulatory landscape for altcoins.
James Seyffart, ETF Analyst, stated: "We’re now at 95% odds for approval of spot ETFs for XRP, Solana, and Litecoin in 2025. The SEC’s overt engagement is unlike any cycle we’ve seen so far. It’s a matter of when, not if."
Aggressive SEC scrutiny or geopolitical factors might alter anticipated outcomes. However, positive analyst forecasts and active SEC participation could bolster long-term market confidence for multi-asset ETF launches. In the short term, crypto markets remain alert.
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