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Analysts have significantly raised the likelihood of approval for spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tracking
, , and in the United States. According to experts, the odds of approval for these ETFs have reached 95%. This development signals a potential wave of approvals for various altcoin ETFs by late 2025. The increased probability of approval for these specific cryptocurrencies reflects a broader trend of growing market confidence in the future of digital assets.The analysts' forecast suggests that a broader crypto index ETF could also gain approval as soon as this week. This would mark a significant milestone for the cryptocurrency market, as it would provide investors with more options to gain exposure to digital assets through regulated financial products. The approval of these ETFs would not only benefit the respective cryptocurrencies but also the overall cryptocurrency market, as it would increase liquidity and accessibility for investors.
The heightened approval odds for Solana, Litecoin, and XRP ETFs are particularly noteworthy given the regulatory challenges faced by the cryptocurrency industry. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has been cautious in approving cryptocurrency-related financial products, citing concerns over market manipulation and investor protection. However, the increased likelihood of approval for these ETFs suggests that the regulatory environment may be shifting in favor of greater acceptance of digital assets.
The analysts' forecast is based on a variety of factors, including the growing institutional interest in cryptocurrencies, the increasing demand for regulated investment products, and the evolving regulatory landscape. The approval of these ETFs would provide investors with a more straightforward and secure way to gain exposure to digital assets, potentially driving further adoption and growth in the cryptocurrency market.
In a recent update, the analysts revealed that they have raised their odds for exchange-traded funds tracking the three altcoins from 90% to 95%. They also gave a 90% probability for spot ETFs tied to
, , , , and Avalanche. Meanwhile, filings from Canary Capital for and received lower estimates, at 60% and 50% respectively. Sui and Tron do not yet have any CFTC-regulated futures products, and it is still unclear whether the SEC considers them securities or not.In June, the experts also mentioned that the agency could act early on SOL and staking-related ETF filings. Their increased optimism follows signs of more engagement from the SEC. A report released early last month revealed that the regulator had asked ETF issuers to submit updated S-1 registration forms and promised to respond within 30 days. It also asked applicants to explain how they plan to handle staking and in-kind redemptions.
Elsewhere, the first U.S.-based staked crypto ETF will be launched this Wednesday. The REX Osprey SOL Staking ETF will allow investors to earn yield from staking Solana. This follows earlier delays due to the SEC’s concerns about the structure of the offering. To meet diversification rules, the fund will invest at least 40% of its assets in other crypto exchange-traded products, mainly those listed outside the U.S.
Although the launch shows some progress, the financial sector overseer has yet to move forward with
staking ETFs. It recently postponed its decision on the Bitwise Ether staking investment product and delayed approval for the Osprey Trust, which had applied to convert into a spot BTC ETF. Bitwise had proposed updating its operational spot ETH ETF to include staking rewards, allowing the fund to generate yield through Ethereum’s proof-of-stake system. However, the SEC has since initiated a formal review to evaluate potential risks to investors.
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