XRP News Today: 86% Odds XRP ETF Gets SEC Approval Amid Legal Clarity and Institutional Momentum

Market confidence in the approval of a spot XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) has surged, with 86% of bets on prediction market platform Polymarket favoring regulatory clearance from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). This high level of optimism is driven by several key developments, including the resolution of the SEC's longstanding legal case against Ripple, increased institutional engagement, and the maturation of XRP-related financial products [1].

The SEC dropped its multi-year lawsuit against Ripple in March 2025, significantly reducing regulatory ambiguity for XRP. This legal clarity has emboldened asset managers to submit ETF proposals to the SEC, with major firms such as Bitwise, Grayscale, Franklin Templeton, 21Shares, CoinShares, and ProShares all entering the race. The volume and quality of these filings indicate strong institutional confidence in XRP’s long-term potential as an investable asset [1].

Market maturity is also evident in the launch of XRP futures ETFs by CME Group in May 2025, which attracted over $542 million in assets within the first month. ProShares’ Ultra XRP ETF (UXRP), introduced on NYSE Arca, further reinforced demand by surging on its debut [1]. These milestones demonstrate not only investor appetite but also the infrastructure readiness that regulators often consider before granting approval.

Polymarket’s 86% probability of approval is backed by a wager volume exceeding $114,000, with the platform historically showing over 90% accuracy in the days leading up to resolution. Market participants widely anticipate that the SEC could finalize a decision before its December 31, 2025, deadline [1]. Analysts speculate that, if approved, a spot XRP ETF could drive substantial inflows similar to those seen with Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, potentially pushing XRP toward the $20–$27 price range [1].

In parallel, Ripple is advancing its regulatory ambitions by formally applying for a U.S. national trust bank charter with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC). The proposed entity, Ripple National Trust Bank, would focus on custodial services, stablecoin reserve management, and institutional custody, but not traditional banking functions like deposit-taking or consumer lending [1]. Volume 1 of the charter application has been made public, offering transparency into the firm’s structure and operational scope.

Ripple’s strategic move is part of a broader industry trend, with other firms like Circle and BitGo also pursuing similar charters. The company aims to establish a Federal Reserve Master Account to streamline stablecoin operations, enabling faster and more cost-effective cross-border settlements [1]. While traditional banking groups have voiced opposition to Ripple’s application, citing concerns over consumer protections, the OCC under Comptroller Rodney Hood has shown a more open stance toward crypto-related financial services.

The convergence of favorable regulatory signals, institutional interest, and market infrastructure developments has positioned XRP at a pivotal moment. The potential approval of an ETF and the granting of a bank charter could redefine both XRP’s role in the financial system and Ripple’s place in the evolving digital finance landscape [1]. With over 80% of market participants backing the ETF outcome and Ripple’s regulatory bid in motion, the narrative is shifting from uncertainty to inevitability—suggesting that the future of XRP may soon be written in the halls of traditional finance.

Source:

[1] XRP Hype Soars: 86% Bet on ETF Approval as Ripple Goes All-In for U.S. Bank Status (https://coinpaper.com/10371/xrp-hype-soars-86-bet-on-etf-approval-as-ripple-goes-all-in-for-u-s-bank-status)