Why XRP's Mispricing Presents a Structural Long-Term Opportunity in Digital Infrastructure

The infrastructure asset class-whether traditional or digital-has always been a barometer of economic progress. In 2025, the divergence in valuation frameworks between these two paradigms has created a compelling asymmetry: while traditional infrastructure is priced for stability, digital infrastructure tokens like XRP are undervalued despite exponential growth in utility and adoption. This mispricing, rooted in outdated metrics and market inertia, presents a structural opportunity for investors willing to rethink the value of next-generation networks.

The Valuation Divide: Traditional vs. Digital Infrastructure

Traditional infrastructure assets-roads, utilities, and energy grids-are evaluated using metrics like EV/EBITDA, cash flow predictability, and regulatory compliance. For example, the Kayne Anderson Energy Infrastructure Fund, a proxy for traditional energy infrastructure, reported asset coverage ratios of 663% for senior indebtedness in Q3 2025, reflecting a conservative, debt-anchored valuation model, according to Kayne Anderson Energy Infrastructure Fund's October 31, 2025 report. Meanwhile, companies like Mistras Group and Badger Infrastructure have seen adjusted EBITDA growth of 7–15% year-over-year, with margins expanding to 28.2% in some cases, as reported in Badger Infrastructure's Q3 2025 earnings. These metrics prioritize steady, tangible returns over speculative growth.

Digital infrastructure tokens, however, operate under a different calculus. XRP, the native asset of the XRP Ledger, is valued using network value-to-transaction (NV/Tx) ratios, market cap scenarios, and on-chain activity. In Q3 2025, XRP's market cap surged to $170.3 billion, driven by a 27.2% quarter-over-quarter price increase to $2.85 per token, according to Messari's Q3 2025 XRP Ledger report. During the same period, the XRP Ledger processed 1.8 million daily transactions, a 8.9% rise from the prior quarter, as reported in the same Messari report. This translates to an NV/Tx ratio of approximately $94,500 (calculated as $170.3 billion market cap divided by 1.8 million daily transactions). By comparison, Visa's traditional NV/Tx ratio (network value-to-transaction volume) hovers around $1,000–$1,500, suggesting XRP's network is undervalued relative to its transactional utility, as noted in Seeking Alpha's analysis.

The Mispricing Thesis: XRP as a Next-Gen Visa

Ripple's recent $500 million funding round at a $40 billion valuation, as reported in Coinotag's coverage, underscores a critical shift: digital infrastructure is no longer a niche experiment but a competitive alternative to legacy systems. XRP's role in enabling near-instant cross-border payments via partnerships like Mastercard and its integration into stablecoins like RLUSD, as reported in the same Coinotag coverage, further solidify its infrastructure value. Yet, despite these fundamentals, XRP's price remains below its projected fair value of $66.67-a 2,631% upside from its Q3 2025 price-per the Seeking Alpha analysis.

This disconnect stems from two factors:
1. Regulatory Uncertainty: Unlike traditional infrastructure, which operates within well-defined regulatory frameworks, XRP's classification as a security vs. utility token remains unresolved in key markets, as reported in the Coinotag coverage. This ambiguity suppresses institutional demand.
2. Short-Term Sentiment: On-chain data reveals that 37% of XRP's supply is still underwater, creating downward pressure as investors sell to fund Ripple's expansion, as reported in the Coinotag coverage. However, this liquidity drag is temporary, as the XRP Ledger's growing adoption in institutional custody and RWA tokenization (e.g., Ondo's OUSG fund, as reported in the Messari report) locks in long-term value.

A Structural Opportunity in the Making

The mispricing of XRP is not a temporary anomaly but a structural feature of the market's failure to price digital infrastructure correctly. Traditional infrastructure companies trade at EV/EBITDA multiples of 12–15x, as noted in Badger Infrastructure's Q3 earnings, while XRP's NV/Tx ratio of $94,500 implies a multiple of ~10x if we analogize its transactional utility to Visa's $1,000–$1,500 range, as discussed in the Seeking Alpha analysis. This suggests XRP is undervalued by at least 60–70%, assuming equivalent growth trajectories.

Moreover, XRP's role in tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) adds a new layer of value. The XRP Ledger's RWA market cap hit $364.2 million in Q3 2025, driven by tokenized treasuries, commercial paper, and real estate, as reported in the Messari report. This diversification insulates XRP from pure speculative cycles, aligning it more closely with traditional infrastructure's stable cash flow model.

Conclusion: Repricing the Future

The infrastructure of the 21st century will be built on decentralized networks, not just concrete and steel. XRP's current mispricing reflects a market that still views digital infrastructure through the lens of 20th-century metrics. But as Ripple's $40 billion valuation and the XRP Ledger's 46.3% surge in new addresses, as reported in the Messari report, demonstrate, the future is already here-it's just not yet priced. For investors, this is the opportunity: to buy into a next-gen Visa at a fraction of its potential value.