XRP Mirrors Gold's Trajectory: What A Similar ATH Rally Would Mean

XRP price movement shows structural similarities to gold's 2022 breakout pattern. Analysts are drawing comparisons between XRP's recent price action and gold's multiyear rally, which saw the precious metal rise nearly 180% from late 2022 to December 2025. This pattern suggests XRP could experience a similar expansion phase in 2026.

Analysts project $8–$10 price target if fractal pattern continues. Market analyst Steph is Crypto identified a classic five-wave structure in XRP's price action, mirroring gold's Elliott Wave pattern. The analyst notes that XRP has completed a falling wedge breakout and is showing early trend expansion behavior. This suggests a potential 230-310% price increase from current levels.

ETF inflows and institutional adoption are reshaping market dynamics. XRP spot ETFs have attracted over $1.4 billion in inflows since their November 2025 launch. Franklin Templeton's XRPZ led recent inflows with $7.35 million, while other major players like Bitwise and Canary also saw significant capital inflows. This institutional adoption is creating a new supply dynamic for the asset.

Why Did This Happen

Analysts are drawing parallels between XRP's consolidation phase and gold's two-year consolidation between $1,620 and $2,055. In late 2022, gold broke through long-term resistance and entered a sustained expansion phase. XRP has shown a similar consolidation pattern inside a descending channel since 2020. This structural similarity is fueling speculation about a potential $8-10 price target in 2026.

How Did Markets React

XRP's recent price surge shows signs of following gold's historical pattern. After spending months within a descending channel, XRP broke out with a nearly 30% rise in early January 2026. This breakout is being interpreted as a sign of upside momentum for the year ahead. Technical indicators suggest XRP is attempting to reclaim key moving averages while facing resistance at the 200-day EMA near $2.35.

What Are Analysts Watching Next

Technical indicators and on-chain data show mixed signals. While XRP ETFs have shown strong inflows, the token's price performance has lagged behind digital asset indexes in 2025. Daily active addresses on the XRP Ledger have fallen by 94% from March 2025 highs, according to Glassnode data. This decline raises questions about network utility and adoption. However, whale activity suggests long-term optimism, with large holders accumulating $3.6 billion in a single day.

Regulatory developments and macroeconomic conditions will be key factors. The Trump administration's industry-friendly oversight approach and potential regulatory clarity could significantly impact XRP's trajectory. Standard Chartered analysts predict XRP could reach $8 if regulatory conditions improve and ETF demand continues to grow according to market analysis. The success of 2026 will depend on maintaining support levels at $1.80 and increasing network activity to shift market sentiment.

The market remains divided on XRP's future. While some analysts see a $8 price target based on continued ETF inflows and regulatory improvements, others warn of potential downside risks below $1.80. Peter Brandt has highlighted a potential double top pattern, suggesting the token could fall below $1 if key support levels break.

Ripple's recent regulatory victories and infrastructure investments could provide additional catalysts. The company spent $2.7 billion acquiring financial services businesses and applied for a federally regulated banking charter. These moves aim to establish XRP as a viable option for institutional investors and traditional financial players.