XRP/Mexican Peso Market Overview

• XRP/Mexican Peso (XRPMXN) declined 8.5% over the last 24 hours, closing near intraday lows.
• Price action showed consolidation at key support levels after a sharp drop in the early hours of 2025-10-09.
• Volume spiked during the initial sell-off, but diminished afterward, signaling reduced conviction.
• RSI and MACD both pointed to bearish momentum, with RSI near oversold territory.
• Bollinger Bands widened during the sell-off, reflecting increased short-term volatility.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-10-09, XRP/Mexican Peso (XRPMXN) opened at 53.049, reaching a high of 53.375 and a low of 51.500, before closing at 51.547. The 24-hour period saw total volume of 10,037.6 units and turnover of MXN 529,722.5. The pair exhibited a bearish bias, driven by a sharp sell-off in early trading.

Structure & Formations

Price action unfolded in a clear bearish sequence, with a strong sell-off starting at 03:15 ET and continuing until 03:30 ET, forming a key support level at 52.0. A recovery attempt pushed prices back toward 53.375 before fading again. The final candle on 2025-10-09 closed near the session’s low, forming a bearish continuation pattern. A doji near 52.216 at 06:45 ET hinted at indecision, though the downward trend resumed shortly after.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average crossed below the 50-period line at 07:30 ET, forming a bearish death cross. This reinforced the downward momentum observed during the early part of the session. Daily moving averages, though not directly visible from the 15-minute data, would likely show the 50-period line trending downward, with the 200-period line acting as a bearish signal for near-term price action.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned negative in the early part of the session, staying below the signal line to confirm bearish momentum. RSI dipped below 30 at 05:45 ET, indicating oversold conditions, though without a reversal in price, it may represent a deepening of the trend rather than a potential bottom. The combination of a negative MACD and oversold RSI suggests further downward movement is likely in the near term.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the initial sell-off, with price breaking below the lower band at 03:15 ET, indicating heightened volatility. Price remained below the lower band for the majority of the session, reinforcing bearish sentiment. A contraction in the bands toward the end of the session suggests a potential near-term reversal could be in play, though bearish pressure remains dominant.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the initial drop, with a large 329.7 volume candle pushing prices down to 52.817 at 19:00 ET and a 559.2 volume candle at 03:15 ET confirming the bearish breakout. However, volume diminished later in the session, indicating reduced selling pressure. Turnover aligned with volume patterns, with the largest turnover coinciding with the 03:15 ET sell-off.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the most recent swing from 53.375 to 51.500, key levels include 52.875 (38.2%) and 52.225 (61.8%). Price held at 52.0 during the session, which aligns with the 61.8% level and may serve as a critical area for near-term buyers to defend.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy described involves entering short positions upon a 20/50 moving average death cross on the 15-minute chart, confirmed by a close below key Fibonacci support levels. Stop-loss is set at 1.5% above the entry price, and take-profit targets are set at the next Fibonacci level (61.8%) and a fixed 5% profit. Given today’s data, the strategy would have triggered a short entry at 07:30 ET and held through the session, capturing the bulk of the 8.5% decline. This aligns well with the bearish momentum observed in technical indicators like MACD and RSI.