XRP's Market Momentum: ETF Inflows vs. Derivatives Divergence

The launch of the XRP spot ETF (XRPC) on November 13, 2025, marked a pivotal moment for the cryptocurrency market, drawing $245 million in net inflows within days of its debut. This surge, driven by institutional demand and a novel in-kind creation model, underscored XRP's growing appeal as a blockchain-based asset. Yet, a stark divergence has emerged between the ETF's success and the broader derivatives market's inactivity, raising questions about the sustainability of XRP's momentum and the interplay between institutional adoption and speculative trading.

ETF Inflows and Institutional Demand: A New Paradigm

The XRPC ETF, managed by Canary Capital Group, leveraged a regulatory breakthrough: its in-kind creation and redemption model, approved by the SEC on July 29, 2025. This mechanism allows ETF shares to be exchanged directly for XRP tokens, bypassing the logistical hurdles of traditional custody. As a result, institutional investors-banks and hedge funds-flocked to the ETF, seeking exposure to XRP's cross-border payment utility without the complexities of direct token management.

The ETF's debut volume of $58.6 million on its first day far exceeded Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas' projection of $17 million, highlighting the pent-up demand for XRP in institutional portfolios. This influx of capital, however, has not translated into sustained price stability. Despite a robust market cap of $136.84 billion, XRP's price plummeted by 9.29% in the 24 hours following the ETF's launch, signaling a fragile equilibrium between inflows and broader market sentiment.

Derivatives Market Inactivity: A Contradiction in Momentum

While the XRPC ETF attracted billions in inflows, the derivatives market tells a different story. Futures Open Interest (OI) for XRP has declined to $3.37 billion as of November 2025, a 69% drop from its July peak of $10.94 billion. This divergence suggests a shift in investor behavior: retail traders, who historically fueled speculative trading via derivatives, are now sidelined, while institutional investors are adopting a more measured approach through ETFs.

The contrast is stark when compared to Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, which have seen cumulative inflows of $60.52 billion and $12.5 million, respectively. XRP's derivatives inactivity, meanwhile, reflects a lack of conviction among short-term traders. This could be attributed to XRP's price volatility post-ETF launch or broader market corrections that have dampened speculative appetite. The absence of derivatives activity also raises concerns about liquidity, as ETFs alone may not be sufficient to absorb large-scale selling pressure.

Technical Indicators: A Bearish Undercurrent

Technical analysis further complicates the bullish narrative. XRP's price has fallen to a critical support level of $2.18, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropping to 36-a bearish signal. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has remained negative since November 12, 2025, and the 50-day EMA is on the verge of crossing below the 200-day EMA, a classic "death cross" pattern. These indicators suggest that sellers are dominating the market, even as ETF inflows persist.

Supply in Profit: A Fragile Foundation

Glassnode's data reveals another layer of fragility: as of November 2025, 58.5% of XRP's supply-37.36 billion tokens-is in profit, while 41.5% (28.5 billion XRP) remains in loss mirroring levels last seen when XRP traded at $0.53. This distribution mirrors levels last seen when XRP traded at $0.53, a stark contrast to its current price of $2.16. The decline in profitability indicates that late buyers from the November 2024 price surge are now underwater, creating a potential overhang of selling pressure. Additionally, profit-taking volume has spiked from $65 million to $220 million per day since late September, signaling heightened anxiety among investors.

Conclusion: ETF Optimism vs. Market Realities

The XRPC ETF's success highlights XRP's institutional appeal, but the disconnect with derivatives inactivity and bearish technical indicators paints a nuanced picture. While the in-kind model and regulatory approval have opened new avenues for institutional capital, the broader market remains vulnerable to corrections. Investors must weigh the ETF-driven optimism against the fragility of XRP's price structure and the lack of speculative demand. For now, the market appears to be in a holding pattern, with ETF inflows providing a floor but insufficient to reverse the bearish momentum.