XRP Jumps 13% on ETF Launch and Tariff Pause, but Faces 33% Drop Risk

XRP experienced a significant surge, jumping 13% and briefly reclaiming the $2 mark following two major developments: the launch of the leveraged XXRP ETF on NYSE Arca and a surprise 90-day pause on most US tariffs, announced by President Trump. These consecutive events provided a strong boost to XRP, with traders celebrating both the growing interest from traditional financial markets and the easing of trade war tensions. However, despite the excitement, technical indicators suggest that this rally might be short-lived.

The XXRP ETF had a strong debut, attracting $5 million in trading volume on its first day, a notable achievement given the current market conditions. Nevertheless, even as positive news circulated, XRP showed signs of weakness. The price fell below the critical $2 support level, which had been holding firm for weeks. A descending triangle pattern, dating back to December, indicates a potential drop to $1.20 if key support levels at $1.81 and $1.71 do not hold. This would represent a 33% decline from where XRP was just days ago.

The market is currently in a state of tension between bullish and bearish forces. On one hand, the launch of the XRP ETF and the tariff pause are clear positives. On the other hand, bearish technical patterns, such as a head-and-shoulders formation and an Elliott Wave correction, paint a different picture. Analyst Peter Brandt suggests that XRP could fall to $1.07. A chart from CasiTrade outlines a possible five-wave drop toward the $1.50–$1.55 range, with the RSI downtrend and lower highs adding to the bearish sentiment.

XRP's price action on April 10, 2025, showed low volatility, trading within a tight range between $1.83 and $1.89. The RSI hovered near the oversold region, and the MACD oscillated with frequent golden and death crosses, indicating weak momentum. A significant bullish spike occurred around 17:00 UTC, breaking out of the range as buying pressure surged. This rally pushed XRP to a local high above $2.05, breaching multiple intraday resistance levels. However, the price soon met strong rejection at the $2.10 mark, which now acts as a critical resistance level.

Following the spike, XRP faced consistent selling pressure, triggering a slow decline toward the $1.98 region. The RSI cooled off from overbought territory and dipped below 50, reflecting waning bullish momentum. The MACD also confirmed bearish signals with successive death crosses, further supporting the ongoing downtrend. Notably, even with the price repeatedly being oversold, it has been unable to generate momentum on the upside, highlighting that bears are still present in the market. The support level around $1.82 is an important area of defense for bulls to hold. As XRP continues to consolidate between $1.98 and $2.10, traders should pay attention to any MACD crossovers or any divergence in the RSI for clues that may lead to the next move.

XRP's 13% price jump brought some much-needed excitement to the market, but that momentum is starting to fade. The rejection at $2.10 and the shift in RSI and MACD suggest the rally might be running out of steam. Yes, the XRP ETF launch and the tariff pause news gave XRP a strong boost, but the charts tell a different story. If XRP can’t hold above $1.82, things could turn south quickly, with downside targets like $1.71 or even $1.55 back in play. For now, it’s a waiting game. Traders should stay alert because XRP’s next big move could come fast, and it all depends on whether this key support level holds.