XRP's Historical Reversal Pattern: Why the 50-Week SMA Breakout Could Signal a Major Bull Case

The XRP price chart has long been a study in cyclical resilience, with its 50-week simple moving average (SMA) acting as both a psychological and technical fulcrum for major reversals. As of November 2025, XRP has spent approximately 70 days trading below this critical SMA, a period that mirrors historical windows preceding explosive rallies. This pattern, observed in 2017, 2021, and 2024, suggests a high-probability inflection point for the asset, provided key support and resistance levels hold.

Historical Precedents: The 50-Week SMA as a Catalyst

XRP's price action has repeatedly demonstrated a correlation between extended periods below the 50-week SMA and subsequent multi-digit surges. In 2017, the token spent 70 days below the SMA before surging 211% in a matter of weeks. A similar dynamic unfolded in 2021, with XRP rebounding 70% after a 49-day bearish phase. The most dramatic example came in 2024, when XRP languished below the SMA for 84 days before launching into an 850% rally to $3.66 by July 2025. These instances highlight a recurring theme: prolonged bearish consolidation often precedes aggressive bullish momentum.

Current Scenario: Testing Critical Support and Resistance

As of November 2025, XRP is once again within the same historical window, having spent 66 days below the 50-week SMA. The immediate technical focus is on the $1.80–$1.85 support zone, which has historically acted as a floor for bullish reversals. Analysts warn that a breakdown below $1.85 could expose the token to a 50% decline toward $1.00, particularly if the $1.92 level-a prior psychological barrier-fails to hold. Conversely, a decisive reclaim of key resistance levels at $1.96 and $2.00 could signal the start of a broader recovery, aligning with the asset's cyclical tendencies.

Macroeconomic Tailwinds: Fed Policy and Liquidity Dynamics

While technical indicators provide a compelling case for optimism, macroeconomic factors cannot be ignored. A potential shift in U.S. Federal Reserve policy toward rate cuts in early 2026 could significantly enhance liquidity and risk appetite, creating a favorable environment for XRP's next move. Historically, accommodative monetary policy has amplified the magnitude of crypto rallies, and XRP's current positioning suggests it could benefit disproportionately from such a backdrop. However, this scenario hinges on the token maintaining its structural integrity above critical support levels.

ETF Inflows: A Limited but Growing Influence

XRP ETFs have attracted notable inflows in recent months, though their impact remains constrained by the asset's relatively modest market capitalization. As of November 2025, these funds represent a fraction of XRP's total value, limiting their ability to drive large-scale price action. That said, continued institutional adoption could amplify the asset's volatility in either direction, particularly if the 50-week SMA breakout coincides with broader market rotations.

Conclusion: A Confluence of Technical and Macro Signals

The alignment of XRP's historical reversal pattern with current technical conditions and macroeconomic tailwinds creates a compelling case for a bullish continuation. If the token successfully reclaims the 50-week SMA and holds key resistance levels, it could trigger a repeat of the 2024-style rally. However, traders must remain vigilant about the risks of a breakdown below $1.85, which would invalidate the bullish thesis and expose the asset to deeper corrections. For now, the 50-week SMA remains a critical watchpoint-a line in the sand that could define XRP's next chapter.