XRP's Historical 50-Week SMA Breakout Pattern and Its Implications for 2025–2026

XRP, the native token of the XRP Ledger, has long been a focal point for technical analysts due to its recurring patterns around the 50-week simple moving average (SMA). As of November 2025, XRP is entering a critical juncture: it has spent approximately 70 days below its 50-week SMA, a historical window that has previously signaled explosive rallies. This article examines the interplay between XRP's bullish SMA breakout potential and bearish macroeconomic and chart patterns, offering a nuanced view for investors navigating the 2025–2026 cycle.

Historical Precedent: The 50-Week SMA as a Catalyst

XRP's price history reveals a consistent narrative: extended periods below the 50-week SMA often precede sharp rebounds. In 2017, XRP spent 70 days below the SMA before surging 211%. A similar dynamic occurred in 2021, with a 49-day bearish phase followed by a 70% rally according to analysis. The most dramatic example came in 2024, where XRP languished below the SMA for 84 days before a staggering 850% rebound. These patterns suggest that the 50-week SMA acts as a psychological and technical inflection point, marking the end of bearish compression and the start of bullish expansion.

Currently, XRP is approaching its 70th day below the 50-week SMA according to technical analysis, aligning with the 2017 and 2024 cycles. If history repeats, a decisive weekly reclaim of the SMA could trigger a multi-digit rally. Analysts like Steph Is Crypto have emphasized that such prolonged bearish phases are not indicative of long-term weakness but rather setups for significant breakouts.

The Bearish Counterargument: Double-Top and Macro Risks

Despite the bullish SMA narrative, XRP faces headwinds. A double-top pattern has emerged on the weekly chart, with two distinct peaks near $3.40 and $3.66. Peter Brandt, a veteran chartist, warns that a breakdown below the $2.00 neckline could drive XRP toward $0.40. This pattern is compounded by increased whale activity: major holders have sold over 1.18 billion XRP in the past four weeks, amplifying downward pressure.

Macroeconomic conditions also add complexity. While the RSI at 33 indicates oversold conditions, the broader market remains volatile, with trading volume up 25% in the past 24 hours. Analysts are divided: some predict a 50% drop to $1 if the double-top holds, while others argue that a rebound above $2.10 could target $3.65–$4.70 according to technical analysis.

Resolving the Conflict: Historical Lessons for 2025–2026

The key to understanding XRP's trajectory lies in how past cycles resolved conflicting signals. In 2017 and 2024, the 50-week SMA breakout overpowered bearish patterns, leading to multi-digit rallies. However, the 2025–2026 cycle is unique due to the double-top's proximity to critical support levels. If XRP fails to reclaim $2.00, the bearish case gains strength. Conversely, a sustained rebound above $2.10 could negate the double-top and reignite the SMA-driven bullish trend.

On-chain data offers further insight: a net outflow of XRP from exchanges suggests accumulation by long-term holders. This contrasts with the short-term selling pressure from whales, indicating a potential tug-of-war between institutional and retail sentiment.

Conclusion: A High-Conviction Case with Caveats

XRP's 50-week SMA breakout pattern presents a compelling bullish case, historically validated by 70% to 850% rallies after extended bearish phases. However, the double-top pattern and macroeconomic risks cannot be ignored. Investors should monitor two critical levels:
1. $2.00: A weekly close above this neckline would invalidate the bearish pattern and signal a potential SMA-driven rebound.
2. 50-Week SMA: A decisive reclaim here could trigger a multi-digit rally, mirroring 2017 and 2024.

While the technical indicators are mixed, the historical precedent for SMA breakouts remains robust. For high-conviction investors, this could represent a high-risk, high-reward opportunity-if macro conditions stabilize and buyers step in at key levels.