XRP's Hidden Bullish Divergence and Path to $3.40–$4.804 in 2025

In the ever-evolving landscape of digital assets, XRP has emerged as a compelling case study in technical and institutional momentum. As of October 2025, the asset is trading at approximately $2.36, with a market capitalization of $142.09 billion and 24-hour trading volume of $2.92 billion, according to a Coinotag report. What makes this moment unique is the convergence of a hidden bullish divergence on technical charts, on-chain accumulation by institutional players, and regulatory tailwinds that could propel XRP toward $3.40 and beyond. This article unpacks how these forces align to create a high-probability bullish scenario.

Technical Analysis: Hidden Bullish Divergence as a Catalyst

A hidden bullish divergence occurs when an asset's price forms higher lows while an oscillator like the RSI forms lower lows. This pattern suggests that selling pressure is waning, and buyers are stepping in to defend key support levels. For XRP, this dynamic is playing out along a rising trendline, with the price stabilizing between $2.32 and $2.38, the Coinotag piece notes. Analyst Javon Marks highlights that this divergence signals sustained buying pressure, particularly from long-term holders who are accumulating during dips.

The implications are clear: if XRP maintains support above $2.20, the next target is $3.40-a level that has historically acted as a psychological and technical resistance. A successful breakout here could trigger a continuation pattern, with $4.804 as the next major target. This trajectory is not just speculative; it's rooted in the TD Sequential buy signal and on-chain metrics that confirm accumulation, as detailed in a Coinotag analysis.

On-Chain Accumulation: Institutional Confidence in XRP

Technical patterns gain credibility when corroborated by on-chain data. XRP's Wyckoff accumulation phase-marked by declining exchange reserves and aggressive accumulation by large holders-provides a strong foundation for the bullish case, according to a Coinotag reserves analysis. From July to September 2025, institutional wallets holding 10 million to 100 million XRP added 310 million tokens, pushing their total holdings to 8.11 billion XRP, according to The Currency Analytics. This represents over 40% of the circulating supply, signaling a shift in market dynamics from retail-driven volatility to institutional-led stability.

Key metrics include:
- Exchange reserves have dropped significantly, reducing the supply available for short-term selling.
- Large transactions exceeding $1 million have surged, with Evernorth and other corporate treasuries committing billions to XRP, per a Bitget report.
- Futures funding rates for XRP hit 0.07% in August 2025, outpacing Ethereum's 0.05%, and CME XRP futures volume surpassed $1 billion in Q3, as reported by The Currency Analytics.

These metrics suggest that institutions are not just buying XRP-they're holding it, a critical factor in reducing short-term selling pressure and creating a floor for the price.

Institutional Developments: ETFs and Regulatory Clarity

The final piece of the puzzle is regulatory progress and institutional infrastructure. T. Rowe Price's filing for a multi-asset crypto ETF-including XRP-has sparked optimism, according to a Blockchain Magazine report. If approved, this could drive $5–$10 billion in inflows, leveraging historical multipliers to push XRP toward $18 or higher, as the Coinotag analysis adds. Meanwhile, Hong Kong's approval of a spot Solana ETF has reinforced global confidence in crypto ETFs, indirectly benefiting XRP's institutional narrative, according to a Cryptopolitan article.

Evernorth's $1.1 billion XRP treasury, supported by Ripple and Pantera Capital, further underscores the asset's utility in cross-border payments and DeFi. The XRP Ledger's recent EVM-compatible sidechain upgrade has also expanded its smart contract capabilities, attracting Ethereum developers to the ecosystem.

The Path to $3.40–$4.804: A Convergence of Forces

The bullish case for XRP hinges on the alignment of three forces:
1. Technical strength (hidden bullish divergence and TD Sequential buy signals).
2. On-chain accumulation (declining exchange reserves and institutional hoarding).
3. Regulatory momentum (ETF approvals and corporate treasury adoption).

If XRP breaks above $3.40, the next target at $4.804 becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy, as institutional buyers and ETF inflows amplify liquidity. This trajectory assumes continued support above $2.20 and no major regulatory headwinds-a reasonable assumption given the current trajectory of XRP's ecosystem.

Conclusion

XRP's journey from $2.36 to $3.40–$4.804 is not a leap of faith but a calculated bet on technical resilience, institutional confidence, and regulatory progress. For investors, the key takeaway is clear: XRP is no longer a speculative altcoin but a strategic asset in the institutional portfolio. As the market capitalization approaches $150 billion and on-chain metrics confirm accumulation, the stage is set for a breakout that could redefine the asset's role in the crypto ecosystem.