XRP Still Hasn't Reversed: Why $1.05 Is the Line Between a Real Bottom and Another Legs Down

XRP near $1.08 is still testing the downtrend, not confirming a bottom

XRP is trading near $1.08 after falling from roughly $1.37 a week earlier. A steep pullback does not become a reversal just because selling has eased for a session. Bulls can point to the 24-hour low of $1.0628 and argue downside exhaustion is showing. Bears still have the cleaner setup: price remains under the 14- and 30-day moving averages, which keeps the short-term trend bearish.

What the levels are actually saying

Structure matters more than hope here. XRP is still compressing above $1 as crucial support, but support alone is not proof of a bottom. A real reversal usually needs buyers to retake nearby resistance, not just absorb one more dip. That is why $1.20 to $1.25 remains more important than small green candles near current price.

The bear case deserves respect for that reason. If XRP cannot reclaim that breakout zone, rallies still look like retests inside a broader weak structure.

XRP ETF flows have improved, but price has not followed

The chart still says wait. The flow data suggests the selloff may not be as empty as it looks.

XRP's backdrop has improved enough to matter, even if price has not earned a reversal yet. A 2026 record $60.5 million weekly inflow into XRP ETFs shows demand can spike even when the broader market is under pressure. That does not guarantee an upside breakout, but it does suggest demand can cushion downside stress.

Good backdrop, not a confirmed trend change

The cushion is meaningful. XRP spot ETFs have accumulated $1.41 billion in cumulative net inflows since their November 2025 launch, and more recent reporting shows US-listed spot ETFs' cumulative inflows hold steady at $1.51 billion amid muted activity. That matters for support, but it does not automatically turn a downtrend into an uptrend.

Recent conditions still argue for caution. ETF demand has cooled, and futures participation has softened as well. mild inflows of $1.15 million on Monday and futures Open Interest to 2.14 billion XRP, down from 2.37 billion XRP in July, suggest interest has improved only modestly. A true trend change usually needs steadier ETF buying and fresher momentum in derivatives at the same time.

XRP's 2026 behavior is another reason not to get too aggressive. The asset has shown that strong surges tend to fizzle out soon after takeoff. That makes the setup interesting, but still conditional.

Watch three things: - Another record-style weekly inflow would strengthen the downside cushion. - Futures open interest would need to push back toward the July peak. - Without both, rebounds can still struggle under sustained selling pressure.

XRP's live decision point is $1.05 to $1.06

The flow debate matters, but the trade is still decided by price. Near $1.0715, XRP remains in a tight fight.

The map

Treat $1.05–$1.06 as a critical support zone as the live support level, not a magic floor. Hold that band and the market is still digesting weakness. Lose it cleanly, and the setup shifts from consolidation to another leg down.

Below that zone, the next real test moves toward $0.90. Above, $1.10 serving as near-term resistance is the first hurdle that matters. A brief wick through it proves little; a sustained move higher improves structure and puts pressure back on sellers. The bigger benchmark remains $1.20 to $1.25, where a breakout would be harder to dismiss as just another range bounce.

Until XRP holds $1.05 to $1.06, the setup still leans range-bound with a bearish bias. If it reclaims $1.10, the posture improves. If it loses $1.05 cleanly, risk increases toward roughly $0.90.