XRP Funding Rates Point To Possible Price Breakout – Details

XRP ETF inflows continue to climb despite a recent price correction. Cumulative inflows have surpassed $1.5 billion, indicating growing institutional interest. However, the price of XRP has fallen by roughly 18% over the past three months, reaching the low-$2 range. This divergence suggests that new capital is flowing into ETFs rather than directly into spot markets.

Technical analysis highlights key support and resistance levels. XRP is currently trading just above the $2.00 level, with the 50-day EMA at $2.07 offering short-term support. Meanwhile, the 100-day EMA at $2.21 and the 200-day EMA at $2.33 remain key hurdles for any potential breakout. Short-term technical indicators, including the RSI and MACD, suggest that sellers still have an edge.

On-chain metrics present a mixed picture. XRP's daily transaction volume hit a 180-day high of 1.45 million on January 13, signaling increased adoption. However, active addresses on the XRP Ledger have fallen by 17.5% since July 2025, to about 42,600. Exchange reserves have also dropped to 1.6 billion tokens, the lowest level since 2018, potentially indicating a tightening of supply.

Why the Divergence Between ETF Inflows and Price Action?

ETF inflows have not translated into immediate price gains. XRP ETFs have seen consistent inflows, with no recorded outflow days, and total assets under management now standing at $1.56 billion. Yet, the price of XRP remains below its July 2025 peak of $3.65. This suggests that ETF buyers are dollar-cost averaging into weakness rather than chasing momentum.

The ETF structure itself may be contributing to the divergence. ETFs allow investors to gain exposure to XRP without directly holding the asset, reducing volatility and increasing liquidity. However, this also means ETF flows do not immediately drive spot price movements in the same way as direct spot buying.

How the Market Is Responding to ETF Demand and On-Chain Trends

Market participants are watching closely as XRP ETFs gain traction. On January 9, the Bitwise XRP ETF saw $4.51 million in net inflows, a 1.48% increase in AUM. This kind of institutional activity typically signals confidence in the underlying asset, even during periods of weakness. However, XRP's price has remained range-bound, indicating that not all capital is being directed into the spot market.

On-chain data also suggests growing utility. XRP is now being used across cross-border payments, stablecoin transfers, and tokenized assets. This real-world demand could provide a foundation for future price appreciation, provided adoption continues to grow. Yet, the recent drop in active addresses and the rise in profit-taking have tempered expectations.

What Analysts Are Watching Next

Analysts are monitoring key price levels and technical signals. A close above the 50-day EMA at $2.07 and a move toward the 100-day EMA at $2.21 could trigger renewed buying interest. Conversely, a breakdown below $2.00 would test a key support level and could lead to further declines. Short-term traders are watching the RSI and MACD for signs of shifting momentum.

Regulatory developments and macroeconomic conditions are also on watch. The XRP ETF rollout has brought the token into traditional finance infrastructure, but regulatory uncertainty remains a risk. Additionally, broader macroeconomic trends, such as interest rate policy and inflation data, could influence investor risk appetite and affect XRP's price.

Long-term forecasts remain varied. Some analysts believe XRP could reach $12.50 by the end of 2028, driven by ETF adoption and institutional interest. Others argue that a 10x move by 2030 is possible but not the most likely scenario. The real question is whether the current on-chain strength and ETF inflows will eventually lead to a sustained breakout or fade into consolidation.

In summary, XRP is at a critical juncture. ETF inflows and on-chain adoption suggest a foundation for growth, but technical indicators and regulatory risks remain key challenges. Investors are advised to monitor both price action and on-chain metrics closely before making decisions.