XRP Fell 43%-Why Bulls Still Think the $1 Floor Will Hold

XRP's bearish chart still leaves $1.00 intact

XRP's setup is undeniably weak. The token trades below the 50-day SMA near $1.21 and the 200-day SMA near $1.37, while weekly momentum has fallen to levels last seen in the 2022 bear market. That is more than routine correction noise.

Bulls are not claiming the chart is healthy. Their point is narrower: the $1.00 area is still the only demand zone XRP has successfully defended this year. If that level fails, the structure likely deteriorates sharply. If it holds, bulls still have a credible floor to build on.

Right now, the market looks more compressed than capitulatory. 24h turnover of 8.49M USD, open interest of about 37.16M XRP, and a funding rate of 0.0100% suggest cautious participation rather than aggressive follow-through selling. That is why the debate remains centered on whether $1.00 is a true base or the next broken support level.

Why bulls still see a bounce setup

Selling may be tiring even if price still looks weak

July began with XRP trading around $1 after falling throughout June. The more important point is not that a bounce occurred, but that some of the follow-through selling disappeared. XRP still remains below major recovery levels and continues to lag stronger parts of the crypto market, so this is not a repaired trend. It is, at minimum, a market where sellers have not had an easy time extending the decline.

Low turnover and flat funding argue against an overheated breakdown

The current tape looks more like consolidation than a clean breakout lower. Again, 24h turnover of 8.49M USD, open interest of about 37.16M XRP, and a funding rate of 0.0100% point to a light, hesitant market. Open interest shows traders are still involved, but flat funding suggests positions are not especially overcrowded.

Add in a Money Flow Index of 40.32 and a Market sentiment | Fear & Greed Index 27 (Fear), and the picture is one of caution rather than conviction on the bid side. That combination can still produce a bounce if selling pressure keeps fading.

Flows and futures activity have been improving without a matching price move

Earlier summer data showed a similar split: XRP-linked investment products continue to attract inflows, futures trading has increased, and analysts are pointing to early rebound signals. But price still struggled to reclaim stronger leaders in crypto. That is the core bull argument: demand has improved enough to limit downside, just not enough to drive a durable breakout yet.

What would confirm a real turn from here?

The main obstacle remains technical. XRP is still below the 50-day SMA near $1.21 and the 200-day SMA near $1.37, and it has repeatedly struggled around nearby resistance. For bulls to argue for a more meaningful squeeze, price first needs to clear the $1.12-$1.13 area with stronger participation.

Until that happens, the bullish case is less about trend strength and more about exhaustion: sellers have not pushed the market into a wider flush, and buyers have kept the $1.00 area alive.