XRP Faces 70% Chance of 79% Decline, 17% Surge Possible

Crypto analyst EGRAG Crypto has published a detailed technical outlook for XRP, highlighting the potential outcomes of a rare chart pattern known as an Ascending Broadening Wedge. This pattern is characterized by diverging trendlines that indicate increasing volatility and a potential directional breakout.

The analyst emphasized that while XRP has the potential to surge to $17, the likelihood of a sharp decline to $0.65 is higher. The analysis was accompanied by annotated charts and a schematic representation of the wedge formation, illustrating the contrasting paths XRP could follow based on key support and resistance levels.

The foundation of EGRAG’s analysis is the Ascending Broadening Wedge pattern, which signals increasing volatility and a potential directional breakout. The analyst noted that technical analysis is based on probabilities rather than certainties, and his observations are assessments of what the chart pattern statistically implies rather than definitive predictions.

For a bullish breakout, XRP must first achieve a daily close above $3.50. Without this close, the bullish scenario cannot form convincingly. Following this, XRP would need to advance into the $5 range and decisively close above this level. A failure to do so would increase the chances of the wedge pattern playing out according to its more common bearish outcome.

If XRP is rejected from the $5 range, it will revisit the $1.90 level to form a successful retest. A bounce from this level and a subsequent attempt to break above $5, preferably reaching and closing above $6, would signal the beginning of a potentially explosive move. According to the wedge’s measured target, this breakout could propel XRP to $17.50 within two to three weeks.

However, EGRAG highlighted that the Ascending Broadening Wedge historically breaks to the downside in 70% of occurrences. Should XRP fail to meet the criteria for a bullish continuation, the analyst warned of a potential decline to $0.65. A red zone at this level was marked on the chart to signify its importance as a downside target. The path toward this bearish scenario would become more likely if XRP is rejected near the $5 level and fails to complete a proper retest of $1.90.

Despite the bearish probability outweighing the bullish one, the analyst did not express immediate concern that the pattern was in motion. He explained that, in his view, the formation is not yet complete. The real test will come once XRP approaches and attempts to close above the $3.50 level. Until that occurs, the pattern remains hypothetical rather than an active threat or opportunity.

In conclusion, EGRAG reminded the XRP community to remain composed and unified. While the range of outcomes is wide, he urged followers not to react emotionally to the potential of either extreme. His final note was one of cautious optimism, reiterating that the formation will only begin to validate if specific price conditions are met. Until then, the chart remains a framework for watching the market unfold rather than a conclusive forecast.