XRP Faces 49% Drop Risk as Head and Shoulders Pattern Emerges

Veteran market analyst Peter Brandt has identified a head and shoulders top pattern in XRP’s price chart, a bearish indicator that typically signals an imminent downtrend. Brandt suggests that the price of XRP could drop significantly, potentially reaching its lowest point from November 2024, unless the cryptocurrency makes a strong recovery.

Since the beginning of March, XRP has struggled to establish a clear direction, experiencing both price drops and occasional rises. However, the overall trend remains bearish. Brandt noted that if XRP exceeds $3.00, the pattern could become bullish; otherwise, it implies a decline to $1.07. This prediction is based on the head and shoulders pattern, which Brandt has observed in XRP’s price movements.

Brandt’s analysis shows that the left shoulder of the pattern formed when XRP hit a peak of $2.9 in early December 2024. This surge followed an uptrend that started in November 2024 after the election win, with XRP rising from $0.5 in November to $2.9 in December before facing a price drop. After more than a month of sideways movement, XRP bounced back, reaching a new seven-year high of $3.4 in mid-January 2025. This peak marked the “head” of the pattern. However, after hitting resistance at $3.4, XRP dropped along with the broader market. Following the announcement that XRP will be part of the U.S. crypto reserve, XRP rallied again, peaking at $3 on March 2, forming the “right shoulder.”

With both shoulders and the head in place, the pattern’s neckline is around $1.9 to $2. This level is crucial because it will decide whether the head and shoulders pattern holds or gets invalidated. Brandt called XRP a “pet rock,” echoing his previous negative opinions about the asset. However, he acknowledged that if XRP breaks above $3, the bearish outlook would no longer apply. If the head and shoulders pattern holds true, Brandt predicts XRP could drop to $1.07, a level last seen in November 2024. Falling below $2 and into the $1 range would be a bearish sign for XRP.

Brandt previously warned that this drop could happen if XRP falls below $1.9, the key support level. Right now, XRP is trading at $2.16, down 6.12% in the last 24 hours. A further 12% drop could push it to test the $1.9 support. Previous analysts suggest that XRP stays bullish as long as it holds above $2.

Beyond technical charts, economic factors also impact XRP’s price. The upcoming 25% tariffs on car imports, starting April 3, could raise manufacturing costs and fuel inflation. Additionally, the chances of a rate cut in June have decreased, which could negatively impact risk assets such as XRP if the Fed keeps rates higher for longer.

Brandt's prediction comes amidst a period of bearish pressure on XRP, despite recent positive developments for Ripple, the company behind the cryptocurrency. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) dropped its long-running lawsuit against Ripple, and a subsequent settlement was finalized. However, these developments have not significantly moved XRP’s price, as investors remain cautious.

The head and shoulders pattern suggests that XRP is currently range-bound. Brandt advises that above $3.00, he would not want to be short, implying a potential for the price to rise. Conversely, below $1.90, he would not want to own it, indicating a strong bearish sentiment. The pattern projects a potential drop to $1.07, a significant decline from current levels.

Other analysts have echoed Brandt's sentiment, with MartyParty also pointing to the head and shoulders pattern and suggesting a technical 50% pullback around $1.60. However, not all analysts agree that the pattern will confirm a downturn. Some have highlighted the potential for an H&S Top Failure pattern, which could lead to a sharp rally instead of a breakdown. This aligns with historical technical analysis, which has identified cases where an H&S pattern failed, leading to a bullish reversal.

Despite the bearish predictions, some analysts remain optimistic about XRP's long-term outlook. They point to Fibonacci extension levels and XRP’s seven-year consolidation breakout as key indicators of a potential bullish momentum. According to their analysis, the third wave could push XRP toward $5.85–$8.08, with the fifth wave potentially reaching $18.22–$23.20. This optimism is based on the belief that the current bearish pressure is temporary and that XRP has the potential for significant growth in the future.