XRP Faces 40% Decline Risk as Trading Volume Drops 50%

XRP is currently at a critical juncture, hovering around the $2.0 support level, which is proving to be a pivotal point for the cryptocurrency. Despite a backdrop of positive developments, the price has yet to reflect this optimism. If XRP fails to maintain this key level, it could experience a significant decline of up to 40%, potentially falling to $1.20. The recent rebound from $1.90 has been notable, but the daily trading volume has decreased by more than 50%, indicating that traders are adopting a wait-and-see approach, awaiting clearer signals.

On the positive side, there is growing enthusiasm surrounding the progress of the Ripple lawsuit. The SEC and Ripple have jointly requested a pause in the appeal, which could bring this long-standing legal battle closer to resolution. Additionally, the on-chain data shows that over 6.26 million addresses now hold at least one XRP, setting a new record for the network. This increase in holders suggests a growing confidence in the cryptocurrency, further fueled by discussions about a potential spot XRP ETF.

However, the overall market sentiment remains cautious due to global uncertainty and widespread volatility. Some analysts are observing a potential head and shoulders pattern forming, and the decline in trading volumes suggests that a significant move is on the horizon. While long-term price targets for XRP, such as $22 or $30, are being discussed, the immediate focus is on whether XRP can sustain its current level. Crypto analyst EGRAG Crypto, analyzing a multi-year chart pattern, suggested that a retracement to $1.20 could pave the way for a substantial rally, drawing parallels to the 2,600% breakout seen in the 2017 cycle. This analysis underscores the importance of XRP maintaining its macro structure to potentially repeat historical price movements.

Examining the short-term price action of XRP on April 11th, 2025, the 5-minute chart reveals a shift in market sentiment following a period of sideways movement. Initially, the price was confined between $1.975 and $2.035, indicating a stalemate between buyers and sellers. However, when XRP broke below this range, it entered a descending channel, finding support around $1.925. During this decline, the RSI remained mostly between neutral and oversold levels, indicating sustained selling pressure. The situation improved when the RSI rebounded from oversold territory, and a Golden Cross appeared on the MACD. As prices recovered from the support zone, XRP entered an ascending channel, forming higher highs and higher lows. The RSI reached overbought levels twice, signaling aggressive buying, while the MACD confirmed this strength with multiple Golden Crosses and sustained bullish histogram bars. However, recent signs of fatigue have emerged, with the RSI retreating from overbought territory and a fresh Death Cross appearing on the MACD. The price is now approaching key resistance near $2.05, a previously strong rejection zone. The interplay between the rising channel support and this overhead resistance will likely determine XRP’s next move.

In conclusion, XRP is at a critical crossroads, with both bullish hopes and bearish risks on the horizon. While long-term optimism is fueled by developments in the Ripple lawsuit, rising adoption, and ambitious price predictions, the short-term outlook is less certain. If XRP can hold above $2, it may regain momentum and push higher. Conversely, a slip below this level could result in a sharp decline toward $1.20. The technical analysis of the 5-minute chart shows a mix of bullish momentum and early signs of fatigue. The next few trading sessions will be pivotal, and traders will closely monitor XRP’s behavior around this key level.