XRP Eyes Breakout as Fed Easing Ignites Institutional Bet

Federal Reserve futures now indicate a 99% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut on September 17, which is boosting risk-on sentiment and driving investor interest in cryptocurrencies like XRP. The market has priced in a near-certainty of easing monetary policy, with traders and investors viewing digital assets as a potential beneficiary of the resulting liquidity expansion. XRP’s price has responded positively to these expectations, surging over 4% to reach $2.995 intraday before consolidating. Institutional flows continue to influence short-term ranges, with support holding firm above $2.88 and resistance persisting near $3.00 after multiple failed breakouts. This pattern suggests a continuation of a consolidation phase ahead of a potential breakout triggered by macroeconomic catalysts, including the Fed’s upcoming policy decision and potential approval of XRP-focused ETFs.

Volume dynamics highlight increased institutional participation, with trading activity spiking to 159.63M on a single day—nearly triple the average—confirming heavy buying pressure at key levels. Whale activity has also intensified, with an estimated 10M XRP accumulated in 15 minutes during a breakout attempt, signaling growing confidence in the asset’s short-term outlook. Exchange reserves hit a 12-month peak, indicating increased supply availability, yet the concentration of holdings among large players suggests a potential for sustained upward momentum if institutional demand increases further. The technical setup remains neutral to bullish, with RSI stabilizing in the mid-50s and MACD showing signs of a bullish crossover. Price is compressing within a consolidation channel under $3.00, and a confirmed close above $3.00–$3.05 could target $3.30–$3.50 as bulls regain control.

From an analytical standpoint, a Fed rate cut could provide a significant tailwind for XRP, especially if institutional adoption of digital assets accelerates. Lower interest rates typically reduce the opportunity cost of holding high-risk, high-volatility assets like XRP, making them more attractive in a low-yield environment. The XRP Ledger (XRPL) offers enterprise-friendly features such as fast cross-border payments and regulatory compliance tools, which align with the growing interest in real-world use cases for digital assets. Ripple’s On-Demand Liquidity (ODL) platform, which leverages XRP for cross-border transactions, could see increased adoption as financial institutions seek more efficient working capital solutions in a low-rate environment. However, the impact of rate cuts on XRP will likely unfold gradually rather than delivering an immediate price surge, as broader economic conditions and adoption rates play a critical role in shaping long-term demand.

Traders are closely monitoring several key events that could influence XRP’s price trajectory in the near term. Thursday’s inflation report will provide critical insight into whether the Fed has the flexibility to execute a 25-basis-point cut or if inflationary pressures—driven by rising tariffs and sticky core inflation—will force a more cautious approach. A dovish outcome could trigger a wave of capital into risk assets, potentially pushing XRP toward $3.10 and beyond. Additionally, six pending XRP spot ETF applications, including proposals from Grayscale and Bitwise, are under SEC review, and approval could redefine institutional access and demand for the asset. Whale accumulation trends and exchange flow data are also being watched as potential indicators of market positioning ahead of these catalysts.

Looking ahead, the interplay between macroeconomic conditions and XRP’s technical setup will be pivotal. If the Fed delivers a 25-basis-point cut and the inflation report aligns with market expectations, XRP could see a push through $3.10, opening the door to $3.25 and $3.45 in the coming weeks. A sustained move above $3.00–$3.05 would not only validate bullish sentiment but also establish a stronger foundation for long-term holders. However, if inflation surprises to the upside or the Fed delays rate cuts, XRP could face renewed selling pressure, testing $2.80 support. The coin’s performance will ultimately depend on the Fed’s credibility in balancing inflation control with employment support, as well as broader market sentiment toward digital assets. XRP’s ability to capture attention during this pivotal period will hinge on both macro policy developments and the strength of its underlying utility in enterprise and institutional use cases.

Source: [1] XRP Climbs 4% as Fed Rate Cut Bets Hit 99% Probability (https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/09/09/xrp-climbs-4-as-fed-rate-cut-bets-hit-99-probability) [2] Here's Why a Fed Rate Cut Could be Great News for XRP (https://www.fool.com/investing/2025/09/02/heres-why-a-fed-rate-cut-could-be-great-news-for-x/) [3] Inflation Spikes, Fed Cuts Loom – What Happens to XRP Next? (https://cryptoticker.io/en/inflation-spikes-fed-cuts-loom-what-happens-to-xrp-next/) [4] XRP to EUR: XRP Price in Euro (https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/xrp/eur) [5] XRP Price Chart Live (https://www.investing.com/crypto/xrp/chart)