XRP ETF Inflows and the Road to $24: A Supply-Demand Framework for the Next Bull Run

The launch of the first U.S. spot XRP ETF, Canary Capital's XRPC, on November 13, 2025, marked a seismic shift in institutional demand for Ripple's XRP token. With $245 million in first-day inflows and a trading volume of $58.6 million, the ETF became the most successful debut of 2025. This surge reflects a broader institutional appetite for XRP, driven by regulatory clarity post-Ripple's SEC settlement in August 2025 and the adoption of an in-kind creation/redemption model that directly links ETF shares to XRP tokens. As nine XRP ETFs from major asset managers like Franklin Templeton and Bitwise prepare to launch between November 18 and 25, 2025, the interplay between institutional demand, token supply dynamics, and market structure is reshaping the bull case for XRP.

Institutional Demand and the In-Kind Mechanism: A New Paradigm

The in-kind creation and redemption model, approved by the SEC in July 2025, is a critical catalyst for XRP's institutional adoption. Unlike traditional ETFs that rely on cash transactions, this mechanism allows authorized participants to exchange ETF shares directly for XRP tokens, bypassing intermediaries and reducing liquidity constraints. This structural innovation explains why XRPC's inflows ($245 million) far exceeded its first-day trading volume ($58.6 million) as reported in initial analysis. For institutional investors, the model offers a regulated, cost-efficient pathway to gain exposure to XRP without the complexities of direct custody, while for the token itself, it creates a self-reinforcing cycle of demand.

The tightening XRP supply further amplifies this dynamic. As of November 2025, only 2.8 billion XRP tokens remain on centralized exchanges, a 30% decline from earlier in the year. This scarcity, combined with projected ETF inflows of $10 billion or more, has triggered a supply-demand imbalance. Analysts now cite price targets ranging from $7 to $24, with the upper end contingent on sustained institutional buying and limited token availability.

Market Structure Shifts: Liquidity, Order Books, and Institutional Behavior

The influx of XRP ETFs has already begun to reshape market structure. Institutional buying patterns, particularly through ETFs like XRPC and Franklin Templeton's EZRP, have led to tighter bid-ask spreads and automated liquidity provisioning around key price levels. For example, the synchronized approval timelines for multiple XRP ETFs have prompted market makers to price in cumulative inflows from issuers like Bitwise and 21Shares, rather than isolated fund activity. This coordination has reduced volatility in the short term, as seen in the orderly price action following XRPC's launch, despite broader crypto market declines.

However, the T+1 settlement cycle inherent to ETFs introduces a lag in price impact. As Fabio Marzella of the XRPL Foundation noted, ETFs often source XRP through over-the-counter liquidity providers, meaning large purchases do not immediately appear on public exchanges. This delayed effect partially explains why XRP's price dipped from $2.52 to $2.13 in the days after XRPC's debut, despite strong inflows. Over time, though, the in-kind mechanism is expected to stabilize prices by aligning ETF demand with token supply more efficiently.

The Road to $24: Regulatory Clarity and Strategic Infrastructure

Ripple's strategic moves have further solidified the bull case. The acquisition of Hidden Road to form Ripple Prime and the launch of the stablecoin RLUSD have enhanced institutional-grade infrastructure, addressing prior concerns about XRP's utility and custody. Meanwhile, Ripple's SEC settlement removed a major regulatory overhang, enabling firms like Franklin Templeton to fast-track their XRP ETF applications. These developments position XRP as a viable alternative to Bitcoin and Ethereum for institutional portfolios, particularly as ETF inflows diversify into payment-layer assets.

Analysts project that the combined effect of ETF-driven demand, constrained liquidity, and institutional infrastructure could push XRP toward $24 by mid-2026. This trajectory hinges on continued regulatory support and the successful execution of ETF launches, but the current momentum suggests that XRP is no longer a speculative fringe asset-it is now a core component of institutional crypto portfolios.

Conclusion

The XRP ETF phenomenon represents a tectonic shift in digital asset markets. By leveraging in-kind mechanisms, tightening supply, and institutional-grade infrastructure, XRP is transitioning from a regulatory gray zone to a mainstream investment vehicle. While short-term volatility remains a risk, the structural forces at play-driven by ETF inflows and supply constraints-create a compelling case for XRP to reach $24 and beyond. For investors, the next few months will be critical in determining whether this bull run becomes a sustained paradigm shift.