XRP ETF Inflows vs. HBAR Selling Pressure: A Flow-Based Comparison

The price action for XRP in early 2026 is a direct function of historic institutional capital flows. Since the launch of spot XRP ETFs in November, these funds have attracted a cumulative net inflow of $1.37 billion. This unprecedented capital injection has been the primary driver behind the asset's dramatic performance.

The impact is clear in the price chart. In the first week of January, XRP surged approximately 25%, decisively outperforming Bitcoin's 6% gain for the same period. This decoupling marks a significant shift, with XRP emerging as the new market leader for the year.

The causal chain begins with regulatory clarity. The SEC ended its case against Ripple Labs in August 2025, removing a major overhang and enabling asset managers to launch spot ETFs. This institutional credibility unlocked a wave of demand that has powered the rally.

The Liquidity Drain: HBAR's Persistent Selling Pressure

The Money Flow Index has dropped below the neutral 50.0 threshold, signaling that capital outflows have decisively dominated inflows in recent sessions. This technical reading confirms the market's persistent selling pressure.

Price action reflects this outflow. HBAR has remained locked in a prolonged downtrend for nearly two months, with recent attempts to recover failing. The token is now testing critical support near $0.114, a level that, if broken, could trigger a cascade of forced liquidations and accelerate the decline.

While HBAR did form a quiet accumulation range in 2025, the current flow lacks the institutional demand seen in XRP. The absence of a similar ETF-driven capital injection means the asset's structure remains vulnerable to selling, with no clear catalyst to shift the balance.

Catalysts and Risks: The Path to a Breakout or Breakdown

For XRP, the primary flow-based catalyst is the continuation of ETF inflows. The asset's dramatic rally was powered by a historic $1.37 billion in cumulative net inflows since launch. A sustained pause or reversal in this capital flow would expose the underlying speculative momentum, making the price vulnerable to a sharp correction.

HBAR's path requires a decisive technical breakout. The token needs to reclaim and hold above the $0.22 level to shift its trend from a prolonged downtrend. However, the current Money Flow Index reading below 50 confirms persistent selling pressure, suggesting more downside risk remains likely.

The overarching risk for both assets is a broader market rotation. If capital flows out of these specific ETF-driven and accumulation narratives into other altcoins or Bitcoin, it could quickly undermine their momentum. The flow-based setups for XRP and HBAR are fragile and dependent on continued capital allocation to their respective stories.