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XRP ETF Betting: 78% Chance of SEC Approval in 2025

Coin WorldTuesday, Feb 18, 2025 6:08 am ET

1min read

Despite recent analyst skepticism, the cryptocurrency community remains optimistic about the prospects of an XRP spot ETF, with a Polymarket bet indicating a 78% chance of approval by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in 2025. This confidence is reflected in the high volume of the bet, totaling $41,610.

XRP, the third-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has a significant presence in the market, with a cap of $149,715,199,049. Given that Bitcoin and Ethereum have already been approved for spot ETFs by the SEC in 2024, there is a possibility that XRP could follow suit in the near future. Seven prominent fund management firms, including 21shares, Grayscale, Bitwise, Canary Capital, and Wisdomtree, have expressed interest in launching a spot XRP ETF.

However, analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart have previously stated that XRP has a lower chance of receiving SEC approval compared to other cryptocurrencies like Litecoin (LTC), Dogecoin (DOGE), and Solana (SOL). According to their analysis, the probability of a spot XRP ETF approval in 2025 is around 65%, while LTC, DOGE, and SOL have higher chances of 90%, 75%, and 70% respectively.

In contrast, Polymarket bettors seem to have a different perspective on the approval chances of these cryptocurrencies. While the bet on a spot XRP ETF approval has a 78% probability, the bet on a spot LTC ETF approval has a lower probability of 84%. Meanwhile, bettors are more confident in the approval of a spot SOL ETF, with a probability of 82%. Notably, no bet on a spot DOGE ETF approval has been created on the Polymarket platform yet.

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