XRP ETF Approval Odds Soar: Bullish Scenarios Paint $10 Target

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is expected to rule on multiple applications for spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) by mid-October 2025. Notable filings include Grayscale’s application to convert its XRP Trust into a spot ETF and submissions from 21Shares and Bitwise. These applications have emerged despite the ongoing legal battle between the SEC and Ripple, but the XRP community remains optimistic about the approval odds under the current cryptocurrency-friendly regulatory environment.

Bloomberg ETF analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas project a 65% chance of a spot XRP ETF being approved. If approved, such an investment product has the potential to attract institutional capital and drive significant price growth for XRP. However, several factors will influence the strength of the growth, including institutional demand, general market sentiment, and regulatory clarity.

OpenAI’s ChatGPT-4o, an artificial intelligence model, acknowledges that a regulatory go-ahead for an XRP ETF could drive a 10% to 30% increase, pushing the token to $2.85 to $3.35 in a mildly bullish scenario. A moderate surge of 50% to 100% could send prices from $3.90 to $5.20, while a highly bullish case could propel XRP as high as $7.50 to $10.40. Beyond these estimates, ChatGPT projects a twofold to threefold increase over time, making $5 to $7 a reasonable short-term target, with broader institutional adoption potentially pushing XRP beyond $10 in the long run.

The ETF approval would serve as a key milestone for XRP, given that the SEC’s case against Ripple has previously weighed down the asset. Speculation is growing that the legal matter could be resolved soon, with pro-crypto advocate Paul Atkins nominated to lead the agency. After the SEC abruptly withdrew its lawsuit against Coinbase, there is speculation that a similar outcome could be possible in its legal battle with Ripple.

As of press time, XRP was trading at $2.58, down about 0.8% in the last 24 hours. On a weekly timeframe, the asset has plunged over 7%. XRP’s price is generally struggling alongside the broader cryptoc