XRP ETF Approval Could Bring $5 Billion Inflows, SEC Decision Awaited

XRP, the cryptocurrency developed by Ripple, has been making significant strides in the financial world, particularly with its potential for an Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF). The approval of an XRP ETF could attract substantial inflows, potentially reaching $5 billion within a month, according to Canary Capital CEO Steven McClurg. This recognition on Wall Street is second only to Bitcoin, indicating a growing institutional interest in XRP. The anticipation of regulatory approval, particularly from the SEC, has been a driving force behind this potential surge in investment. The submission for an XRP spot ETF by Canary Capital in October 2024 is currently under review, with other asset managers also filing for similar products.

The potential approval of an XRP ETF is expected to significantly impact the market, potentially reshaping institutional strategies around XRP holdings. Financial entities, including public companies, are already directing treasury assets toward XRP, indicating its growing acceptance. The market's positive anticipation is evident, with large institutional capital waiting for the SEC's decision. Prediction platforms like Polymarket register an 86% likelihood for approval, capturing the institutional sentiment. As the SEC deliberations continue, speculative pressures mount on XRP-linked financial products. Anticipated regulatory clarity might herald new decentralized finance opportunities, building on observed trends in BTC and ETH's prior ETF activations. XRP's ETF could lead to similar increases in on-chain liquidity and total value locked.

The XRP Ledger (XRPL) has shown strong growth in the second quarter of 2025, with the market capitalization of real-world assets reaching $131.6 million at the end of June, the highest level to date. This growth was supported by new issuances presented at the XRPL Apex event in Singapore, including tokenized real estate from Ctrl Alt, digital commercial paper from Guggenheim, and the OUSG Treasury fund from Ondo. These projects expanded the range of assets that can be represented on XRPL. Infrastructure also advanced during the quarter, with analytics provider RWA.XYZ integrating XRPL into its platform in March, allowing users to track the performance of tokenized assets. By the end of the quarter, thirteen RWAs had been added, and further integrations are expected.

XRP also recorded gains in Q2 2025, with its market capitalization reaching $132 billion by the end of June. Momentum extended into July, as XRP’s market value rose further. While asset growth continued, network fees decreased. XRPL operates differently from many blockchains, as fees are permanently destroyed instead of distributed to validators. Fees collected fell by 38.7% in dollar terms, dropping from $1.1 million to $680,900. In XRP terms, fees fell 27.4% from 425,300 to 308,700 tokens.

Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin showed strong growth across XRPL and Ethereum in Q2. Combined market capitalization reached $455.2 million by June. On XRPL, RLUSD ended the quarter with $65.9 million in value, a rise of 49.4% from the previous quarter. Ethereum issuance accounted for the rest. More recent data placed RLUSD’s market cap at $701.6 million, with $85.9 million on XRPL and $615 million on Ethereum. These developments showed continued adoption of RLUSD, growth in tokenized real-world assets, and strength in XRP’s market position as Q2 2025 closed.

The crypto market is entering one of its most important months of the year, with analysts discussing whether the signal from the SEC could be a cause for a huge XRP bull run. They are eagerly looking forward to the SEC’s decision regarding the approval of the first-ever spot XRP ETF, which is set to take place in October 2025. XRP’s legal clarity, whale accumulation, and growing institutional demand have pushed forecasts as high as $5–$6 in the near term. After the SEC dismissed its decade-long lawsuit against Ripple in August, XRP secured its position alongside Bitcoin and Ethereum as a regulated commodity. This landmark ruling cleared the path for institutional adoption and ETF products.

Analysts currently see two primary scenarios for XRP: In a conservative case, delays in approvals or weaker institutional flows could cap prices near $2.50. But in the bullish case, sustained whale accumulation, ETF approval, and a breakout above $3.60 could trigger a surge toward $4.50–$6.19. Recent whale activity has added weight to the bullish thesis, with approximately $3.8 billion in net purchases recorded in August alone. This strong conviction suggests institutions and crypto whales are positioning for a favorable ETF outcome.