Is XRP Entering Its Final Bullish Phase Before a Major Correction?

The XRP market in late 2025 is at a crossroads, with conflicting signals emerging from technical analysis and behavioral dynamics. On one hand, the asset's price has lingered in a critical Fibonacci retracement zone dubbed the "golden pocket," sparking speculation about a potential breakout. On the other, historical patterns of volatility, whale-driven sell-offs, and ETF-related "buy the rumor, sell the news" dynamics suggest a precarious setup for a sharp correction. This article examines whether XRP is entering its final bullish phase before a major downturn, dissecting technical indicators, institutional activity, and behavioral trends.

The "Golden Pocket" Zone: A Structural Battleground

The "golden pocket" zone for XRP, defined as $1.63 to $1.88 on a logarithmic scale, has emerged as a focal point for technical analysts. According to chart analyst JD, this range represents a key structural area where XRP's price action could determine its near-term trajectory. JD's analysis, updated on October 12, 2025, highlights that XRP is poised for a "last upward move" before a projected "rug pull crash." This view is rooted in the asset's inability to sustainably break above $1.96, a level critical for reversing the bearish momentum observed in November 2025.

However, the golden pocket's validity is contested. MakroVision's on-chain analysis notes that XRP's reactivity within this zone has been weak, with the price failing to generate conviction despite institutional buying pressure. For example, while 716 transactions exceeding $1 million were recorded in November 2025, the asset's consolidation near $2.24–$2.26 failed to translate into a sustained rally. This suggests that the golden pocket may act as a trap rather than a catalyst for a bullish breakout.

ETF Hype vs. Reality: A Recurring "Pump and Dump" Script

The launch of U.S. spot XRP ETFs in late 2025 has reignited familiar patterns of volatility. Historical data from 2017–2024 shows that XRP often experiences sharp price surges ahead of major events, only to correct sharply afterward. For instance, the Canary Capital XRP ETF (XRPC) triggered a pre-launch spike above $2.50, followed by a drop to $2.16 on the day of its November 13 launch. This "buy the rumor, sell the news" dynamic was amplified by whale activity: over 200 million XRP tokens were distributed within 48 hours of ETF approvals, leading to $43.96 million in derivatives liquidations.

Institutional demand, while significant, has been delayed by regulatory and settlement processes. Franklin Templeton's XRP ETF, for example, began trading on November 24, 2025, but its impact on spot prices was muted initially due to the T+1 settlement cycle. Analysts like Fabio Marzella of the XRPL Foundation caution that ETF inflows-while genuine-require time to translate into on-chain accumulation, with much of the buying occurring off-exchange via OTC channels. This lag creates a dislocation between ETF optimism and XRP's technical underpinnings, which remain bearish, with the token trading below all major moving averages.

Behavioral Dynamics: Fear, FOMO, and the "Rug Pull" Narrative

Investor sentiment in November 2025 has oscillated between extreme fear and cautious optimism. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index hit a low of 15, reflecting widespread anxiety amid XRP's drop to $1.85. Yet, the anticipation of ETF approvals has also fueled FOMO-driven buying, particularly among retail traders. Over 21,000 new XRP wallets were created in 48 hours ahead of the November ETF launches, marking the fastest growth in eight months.

JD's warning about a "rug pull crash" resonates with XRP's historical volatility. The 2017 pump-and-dump cycle-where XRP surged from $0.006 to $3.84 before collapsing by 95%-serves as a cautionary tale. While some analysts argue that institutional adoption and XRP's role in global payments could stabilize the token, the current environment mirrors past cycles, with whale selling and speculative inflows creating a fragile equilibrium.

Contrasting Bullish and Bearish Signals

The debate hinges on whether XRP's current rally is a genuine breakout or a final trap. Bullish arguments include:
- Institutional ETF inflows: Franklin Templeton and Grayscale's XRP ETFs have attracted $245 million in inflows within 72 hours of their November 2025 launches.
- On-chain accumulation: $556 million in XRP was withdrawn from exchanges in November 2025, signaling long-term positioning.
- Historical December performance: XRP has averaged a 69.6% return in December, offering a potential catalyst for a year-end rebound.

Conversely, bearish indicators include:
- Weak technical reactivity: XRP's failure to hold above $1.96 and its symmetrical triangle pattern suggest a continuation of the downtrend if support at $2.05 breaks. This view is supported by analysis from whale selling and market dislocation.

Conclusion: A Precarious Equilibrium

XRP's current price action reflects a tug-of-war between institutional optimism and structural bearishness. While ETF approvals and on-chain accumulation hint at long-term potential, the asset's history of pump-and-dump cycles and weak technical reactivity in the golden pocket zone raise concerns about a near-term correction. Investors must weigh the risk of a "rug pull crash"-as predicted by JD-against the possibility of a delayed ETF-driven rally. For now, the market appears to be in a holding pattern, with the $1.96–$2.05 range serving as a critical battleground.