XRP's Elliott Wave Dynamics: Wave C's Implications for $2.28 Resistance and a Potential Path to $1.65

The XRP price action in late 2025 has become a focal point for technical analysts, with Elliott Wave structures offering a framework to interpret its trajectory. As the cryptocurrency consolidates near critical junctures, the interplay between Wave C's potential, the $2.28 resistance zone, and the looming $1.65 target underscores a high-stakes scenario for traders. This analysis synthesizes recent technical insights and risk management strategies to evaluate XRP's path forward.

Elliott Wave C: A Catalyst for Breakouts or Corrections

According to a report by CasiTrades, XRP's recent pullback to $2.09 marks the completion of Wave B within a broader corrective pattern. This sets the stage for Wave C, which is anticipated to drive the price above $2.26 and test the dense resistance cluster at $2.28. This level is reinforced by overlapping Fibonacci projections, including the 1.236 extension and golden retracement levels. A clean breakout above $2.28 could validate the bullish thesis, signaling a continuation of Wave C and potentially propelling XRP toward $3.50–$4.00, as noted by BraveNewCoin analysts.

However, the path is not without risks. If Wave C encounters rejection at $2.26–$2.28, it could trigger a larger Wave 3 correction, dragging prices down to $1.65. This scenario hinges on liquidity dynamics and volume confirmation, with a 24-hour trading volume of $4 billion serving as a liquidity benchmark for sustained directional moves.

The $2.28 Resistance: A Gateway to Bullish or Bearish Scenarios

The $2.28 level is a psychological and structural linchpin. As stated by technical analysts, this zone converges with prior reaction highs and Fibonacci extensions, making it a critical inflection point. A breakout above $2.28 would likely see XRP targeting $2.58, while a breakdown below $2.17 could accelerate bearish momentum.

Shorter-term indicators add nuance. A close above $2.22 within the next 7 days is seen as a bullish catalyst, whereas failure to hold $2.17 could signal renewed weakness. These thresholds highlight the importance of tight stop-loss orders for traders, particularly given the volatile nature of XRP's price action.

The Path to $1.65: A Bearish Contingency

If Wave C fails to breach $2.28, the market may enter a deeper correction. Analysts from LiteFinance note that a breakdown below $1.77-a key support level-could initiate a Wave 3 decline toward $1.65. This target is reinforced by the A-B-C corrective pattern, where the $2.26 resistance acts as a gatekeeper for further downside.

Risk management becomes paramount in this scenario. Traders are advised to implement stop-loss levels around $1.75 to mitigate exposure, while scaling entries and conservative position sizing can help navigate the uncertain technical setup. Volume confirmation remains a critical factor; without sufficient liquidity, even a break below $1.77 may lack conviction.

Strategic Implications for Traders

For those bullish on XRP, the $2.05 level is a near-term target, with a 14-day window for confirmation. A successful retest of this level could reignite the Wave C push. Conversely, bearish participants should monitor the $1.77 support, as its failure would validate the $1.65 target.

Neutral strategies, such as options-based hedging or range trading between $2.17 and $2.28, may appeal to risk-averse traders. However, all strategies must account for the high volatility and liquidity risks inherent in XRP's market structure.

Conclusion

XRP's Elliott Wave dynamics present a binary outcome: a breakout above $2.28 could unlock significant upside, while a rejection may precipitate a sharp decline toward $1.65. Traders must remain vigilant, leveraging Fibonacci tools, volume metrics, and disciplined risk management to navigate this pivotal phase. As the market approaches these critical levels, the interplay between technical signals and macroeconomic sentiment will ultimately determine XRP's trajectory in early 2026.