XRP's Elliott Wave Completion: A Strategic Buy-Point for Wave 5

The cryptocurrency market has long been a proving ground for technical analysis frameworks, with Elliott Wave theory emerging as a critical tool for deciphering price action in volatile assets like XRP. As we approach the final quarter of 2025, a confluence of on-chain metrics, institutional demand, and wave structure suggests that XRP has completed its corrective Wave 4 and is primed for a powerful Wave 5 rally. This analysis synthesizes recent developments in market structure and long-term value accumulation to argue that the $2.00 level represents a strategic buy-point for investors seeking to capitalize on the next leg of XRP's bull cycle.

Wave 4 Completion: A Structural Turning Point

According to a report by analyst Dark Defender, XRP's Wave 4 correction-a critical component of its broader Elliott Wave pattern-has conclusively ended. This correction, which began on February 13, 2025, unfolded in three distinct legs: Wave A bottomed near $1.60 in April, Wave B peaked at $3.66 in July, and Wave C found support at $1.88, marking the confirmed conclusion of the corrective phase. The alignment of this Wave 4 completion with Fibonacci retracement levels-particularly the 70.2% level-further strengthens the case for a directional shift. Analysts now anticipate a potential 200% rally in XRP's price as Wave 5 unfolds, driven by the exhaustion of selling pressure and the re-emergence of institutional buying.

Market Structure: Institutional Demand and Whale Accumulation

The structural underpinnings of XRP's current price action are equally compelling. Data from on-chain analytics platforms reveals a surge in accumulation by large holders, or "whales," who have acquired approximately 340–330 million XRP between September and November 2025, valued at roughly $640 million. This activity reflects a strategic effort to capitalize on depressed prices and reinforce the $2.00 support zone. Notably, exchange reserves have declined by 45% since mid-2025, with over 1.35 billion XRP moving into custody accounts. This shift, accelerated by the launch of U.S. spot ETFs, has tightened liquidity and amplified the impact of buying pressure.

Institutional demand has further solidified this structural shift. ETF inflows into XRP reached $1 billion within five weeks of the November 2025 launch, a record pace of adoption that underscores growing confidence in the asset. These inflows have not only reduced circulating supply but also created a new class of long-term holders, many of whom are now defending positions in the $1.95–$2.05 range. The clustering of cost bases in this zone, combined with low Coin Days Destroyed metrics, indicates that traders are prioritizing holding over selling-a behavior typically observed in the early stages of a bull market.

On-Chain Metrics: A Bear Market Bottom in Progress

While XRP's 30-day MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio hit a bearish -15.3% in October 2025-the deepest negative reading among major cryptocurrencies-this metric must be contextualized within the broader accumulation narrative. The 45% selloff from its July peak of $3.66 to $2.00 by December 2025 created widespread underwater positions, with 37% of the circulating supply trading below cost basis. However, this pain point has coincided with a sharp decline in "liveliness" metrics, signaling that long-term holders are transitioning from selling to holding behavior. The interplay between these metrics and institutional activity suggests a classic bear market bottom is in progress. For instance, the $1.88 level-identified as the Wave 4 low-has held firm despite macroeconomic headwinds, while ETF custody has effectively removed a significant portion of XRP from immediate liquidity. This structural tightening means even modest buying pressure could catalyze a rapid price rebound, particularly if the $2.02 level is retested.

Strategic Buy-Point: Wave 5 and the Path to $4.00

The convergence of these factors positions $2.00 as a critical strategic buy-point for Wave 5. Historically, the completion of a corrective Wave 4 is followed by a strong directional impulse in Wave 5, often extending beyond previous highs. Given XRP's current on-chain fundamentals and institutional tailwinds, a 200% rally to $4.00 appears not only plausible but structurally supported.

However, risks remain. A breakdown below $1.85 could trigger a retest of the $1.79 support level, exposing further downside risk. Conversely, a sustained close above $2.20 would validate the bullish thesis and signal the resumption of a multi-month uptrend. Investors should monitor whale activity and ETF inflows as leading indicators of market sentiment, while on-chain metrics like MVRV and Coin Days Destroyed will provide real-time validation of accumulation trends.

Conclusion

XRP's Elliott Wave structure, combined with its evolving market dynamics, presents a compelling case for a strategic entry at $2.00. The completion of Wave 4, reinforced by whale accumulation, ETF-driven supply tightening, and on-chain stability, suggests that the asset is transitioning from a bearish correction to a bullish impulse phase. For investors with a medium-term horizon, this juncture offers a rare opportunity to align with institutional demand and position for a potential Wave 5 that could redefine XRP's price trajectory in 2026.