XRP Drops Below $1.05 as CLARITY Hopes Fade-Can August's Weak Trend Hold?

CLARITY delay and soft ETF flows hit XRP near $1.03

XRP is now around $1.03. The near-term pressure is straightforward: two temporary supports weakened at once. First, the Senate will not vote on the Clarity Act this month, removing the regulatory catalyst many traders had hoped to trade this month. Second, spot XRP ETFs saw a $3.58 million net outflow on August 5, ending a positive streak and reducing near-term buying pressure.

The 2026 bullish case has leaned heavily on sustained ETF inflows and regulatory clarity. When both soften together, the market has less reason to pay up for future hopes.

Price action has now caught up with that shift. XRP broke below the $1.05 support floor, which now flips to resistance. Bulls still have one clear defense in the $1.00 psychological support, which has held all year. Until that changes, bears keep the cleaner short-term setup.

Why bulls still see a pause rather than a broken thesis

Bulls argue that August can look weak without invalidating the broader case.

ETF cumulatives still show real demand

XRP spot ETFs have accumulated roughly $1.32 billion since the November 2025 launch, while another measure puts cumulative net inflows at $1.41 billion. Those figures suggest demand has been present, even if recent price action has turned soft.

Stronger months still matter

Earlier this year, XRP ETFs posted a 2026 weekly record of $60.5 million in inflows during the week ending May 15. In that same period, Bitcoin lost $1 billion and Ethereum lost $255 million. That does not prove a breakout is imminent, but it does show XRP attracted attention even when the broader tape weakened.

There is also a caveat. Retail investors account for 84% of XRP ETF inflows, so the current demand base is not the same as large institutional sponsorship. Bulls can still argue that flow strength can return if the regulatory backdrop improves; bears can argue that today's flows are not enough on their own.

August's history keeps the bar low for XRP

The broken $1.05 support floor and the recent ETF wobble explain the damage. What matters now is how the market trades the rest of the month.

August has been XRP's flattest month

XRP entered August near $1.06, but historical performance suggests this is not a natural chase zone. August is the flattest month XRP has ever recorded, averaging a return of just 0.43%, and the asset has closed the month lower for four straight years.

The next regime change is a flow reversal

With a vote on the Clarity Act until September, August now looks more like a holding pattern than a catalyst-driven rally. That leaves two main signals to watch:

• A rebound back above $1.05, which would soften the breakdown.
• A clean hold of $1.00, which remains the key level for bulls.

If flows turn positive again, August weakness may look like a pause. If they keep sliding, the market may start treating the $1.00 psychological support as the next test.