XRP and Dogecoin Under Pressure: Assessing the Risk of Deeper Corrections Amid Intensifying Selling and Weak ETF Demand

The crypto market's most volatile altcoins-XRP and Dogecoin-are facing a perfect storm of technical breakdowns and institutional liquidity challenges. As both assets trade below critical support levels and grapple with weak ETF demand, the risk of deeper corrections looms large. This analysis dissects the short-term bearish dynamics and institutional forces shaping their trajectories, offering a roadmap for investors navigating this turbulent phase.

Technical Breakdowns: Death Crosses and Fragile Support Levels

XRP's recent collapse below the $2.20 support level has confirmed a death cross on its daily chart, a bearish signal indicating that short-term selling pressure has overwhelmed long-term accumulation according to market analysis. The token now trades at $2.14, with its next key psychological barrier at $2.00. If this level fails, historical lows at $1.90 and $1.61 will come into play, with a 50% drop to $1.25 aligning with the 100% Fibonacci extension from July peaks to October lows. This trajectory suggests a high probability of further downside, particularly as on-chain data reveals over half of XRP's circulating supply is currently at a loss, exacerbating selling pressure.

Dogecoin (DOGE) is equally vulnerable. After breaking below $0.1495, the token slumped to a monthly low of $0.1377 amid a high-volume selloff. Immediate resistance at $0.1383 has stifled recovery attempts, and consolidation between $0.1372 and $0.1383 indicates a lack of conviction in buyers. A breach of the $0.15 support level could trigger a cascade to $0.09532 and eventually $0.0595-a historical accumulation zone. Conversely, a rebound above $0.15 might push DOGE toward $0.25172 and $0.3155, but broader technical indicators, including the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, suggest continued downward momentum.

Institutional Liquidity Dynamics: ETF Inflows and Order-Book Fragility

While XRP and Dogecoin have gained institutional traction via ETFs, the liquidity dynamics remain uneven. XRP ETFs, including 21Shares' TOXR, have attracted $666.61 million in inflows, driven by regulated custody solutions and institutional demand. However, this has not translated into price stability. XRP's order-book depth remains fragile, with liquidity thinning to "air" during volatility spikes. For instance, Binance Futures' order-book depth thinned to a point where modest market orders could trigger significant price swings, potentially sending XRP to $1.19 or $20 depending on market maker actions.

Dogecoin's institutional adoption lags behind. Grayscale and Bitwise's DOGE ETFs generated only $2.16 million in first-week inflows, reflecting muted demand. This weak institutional interest coincides with a 9% price slump amid Bitcoin's weakness and broader risk aversion. The token's liquidity is further strained by its thinner order books compared to Bitcoin, making it susceptible to liquidity drains during downturns.

The ETF Paradox: Mainstream Access vs. Price Pressure

The approval of U.S. spot ETFs for XRP (XRPR) and Dogecoin (DOGE) in September 2025 marked a regulatory milestone, signaling altcoin inclusion in mainstream finance. Yet, these ETFs are paradoxically tightening tradable supply. For XRP, ETFs are projected to absorb 5–6 billion exchange XRP over 14–17 months at current inflow rates, increasing scarcity but not necessarily boosting price. Meanwhile, Dogecoin's ETFs have failed to offset selling pressure, with whale activity-such as large-scale transactions involving millions of tokens-driving volatility.

Conclusion: Navigating the Bearish Outlook

For XRP, the immediate focus is on defending $2.00 and $1.90. A breakdown to $1.25 would represent a 50% decline from current levels, testing long-term holders' resolve. Dogecoin's critical $0.15 support level is equally pivotal; a breach could accelerate its descent toward $0.0595. Investors must also monitor ETF inflows and order-book depth, as institutional liquidity dynamics will likely dictate short-term outcomes.

While the technical and institutional headwinds are formidable, history shows that altcoins like XRP and DOGE can rebound if whale accumulation and ETF demand stabilize. For now, however, the bearish narrative dominates-a reminder that in crypto, even the most hyped assets are never immune to the forces of supply, demand, and liquidity.