XRP's Deflationary Momentum and ETF Catalysts: A High-Conviction Investment Thesis for 2025-2026

In late 2025, XRP is emerging as a focal point for institutional investors and crypto bulls, driven by a confluence of deflationary dynamics, regulatory progress, and network efficiency. A 60.87% surge in the XRP burn rate in early November 2025, according to a Coinotag report, coupled with a price rebound to $2.29, as reported by a Coinotag analysis, has reignited speculation about the token's potential to break above key resistance levels. Meanwhile, the SEC's 20-day countdown for 21Shares' spot XRP ETF filing, reported by a Trading News article, has intensified market anticipation, positioning XRP at the intersection of scarcity-driven value and institutional adoption.

Deflationary Dynamics: Burn Rate and Scarcity

The XRP Ledger's burn rate-a metric reflecting the permanent removal of tokens via transaction fees-experienced a dramatic 60.87% increase in a 24-hour period, rising from 667 to 1,073 tokens burned, as detailed in the Coinotag report. This surge coincided with a 5.24% price rebound to $2.29, driven by renewed network activity and reduced selling pressure, as noted in the Coinotag analysis. Such deflationary pressure is critical for XRP's value proposition: as transaction fees are irreversibly destroyed, the circulating supply shrinks, potentially amplifying scarcity and upward price momentum.

However, the Q3 2025 burn rate was volatile, dropping to 741 XRP in late October from over 4,500 in August, as reported in the Coinotag analysis. Analysts attribute this to a market pivot toward Bitcoin's rally and lower transaction volumes. Yet, the November uptick suggests a reinvigoration of on-chain activity, particularly as real-world asset tokenization on the XRP Ledger surged by 215% from Q2 to Q3, according to the Coinotag analysis, signaling broader adoption beyond payments.

Institutional Adoption: ETFs and Regulatory Legitimacy

The most immediate catalyst for XRP's institutional adoption is the SEC's impending decision on 21Shares' spot XRP ETF. Filed on November 7, the 8(a) form triggers a 20-day automatic approval clock, as described in the Trading News article, with a potential launch by late November if no objections are raised. This development is part of a broader trend: Franklin Templeton's XRPZ ETF and Grayscale's XRP Trust have already signaled growing institutional confidence, as reported in a Coinpedia analysis.

Ripple's strategic moves further bolster this narrative. The acquisition of Hidden Road Partners and the launch of Ripple Prime-a platform enabling institutional investors to trade XRP alongside traditional assets-have created a seamless bridge between crypto and conventional markets, as reported in the Coinpedia analysis. Additionally, Ripple's 75+ regulatory licenses and partnerships with banks like BBVA and DBS Bank are expanding cross-border settlement pilots, reinforcing XRP's utility in global finance, as reported in the Coinpedia analysis.

Network Efficiency and Active Addresses: A Mixed Picture

The XRP Ledger's technical advantages remain a cornerstone of its appeal. With a proven capacity to process 1,500 transactions per second (TPS), as noted in a Coinotag report, the network offers near-instant, low-cost transactions-critical for institutional use cases. However, active addresses have declined sharply, dropping to 12,819 in November 2025 from over 25,000 earlier in the year, as reported in a Timestabloid analysis. While this suggests a cooldown in retail activity, the number of XRP holders has increased, indicating growing long-term confidence, as noted in the Timestabloid analysis.

Projects like XRP Tundra are addressing this gap by transforming passive holdings into active strategies through staking and yield-generating mechanisms, as reported in the Timestabloid analysis. This innovation could reinvigorate network participation while aligning with institutional-grade security standards.

Expert Projections: A Bullish Outlook

Price targets for XRP in 2025–2026 are ambitious. Jake Claver, a prominent crypto analyst, predicts a $100 price tag by year-end 2025 and $1,500 by early 2026, citing ETF approvals and financial restructuring as key drivers, as reported in the Coinpedia analysis. Short-term targets from Dark Defender, based on Elliott Wave analysis, range between $5.85 and $10, as reported in a Blockonomi analysis. Meanwhile, analysts project ETF-linked tokens like NASDAQ: XRPI and BATS: XRPR could reach $25–$35 by 2026, as reported in the Coinpedia analysis, further amplifying XRP's exposure to institutional capital.

Conclusion: A High-Conviction Investment

XRP's trajectory in late 2025 is shaped by three pillars: deflationary scarcity, regulatory progress, and institutional infrastructure. The 60.87% burn rate surge, as detailed in the Coinotag report, and $2.29 price rebound, as reported in the Coinotag analysis, underscore a market primed for a bullish breakout, while the SEC's ETF timeline, as described in the Trading News article, offers a clear catalyst. For investors, the combination of network efficiency, growing institutional adoption, and expert optimism paints a compelling case for XRP as a high-conviction altcoin.

As the XRP Ledger continues to evolve-from real-world asset tokenization to cross-border settlements-the token's scarcity-driven value and institutional accessibility position it as a unique opportunity in the crypto landscape.