XRP's Deepening Bear Trends Amid Technical Deterioration

XRP's technical landscape in late 2025 has grown increasingly bearish, with deteriorating momentum and diverging indicators signaling a fragile market structure. While the asset remains above critical long-term support levels, short-term dynamics suggest a deepening correction cycle. This analysis unpacks the technical underpinnings of XRP's recent performance, focusing on bearish divergences, momentum reversals, and the implications for near-term price action.

Technical Deterioration: Bearish Divergence and Mixed Signals

XRP's price action in early October 2025 reveals a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. As of September 10, the asset traded at $2.96, with a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 51-a neutral reading but far from bullish territory, according to Tecronet's analysis. Meanwhile, the MACD dipped to –0.04, reinforcing short-term caution according to Tecronet's analysis. The 5-day and 20-day moving averages (MAs) formed a bearish crossover, with the 5-day MA falling below the 20-day MA-a classic sign of downward momentum, according to a CoinDesk report.

Historical backtesting of MACD Death Cross events on XRP from 2022 to 2025 reveals that such signals have limited predictive power. Over 45 Death Cross events, the average 30-day cumulative performance underperformed the buy-and-hold benchmark, with a win rate hovering near 50%. This suggests that while the current bearish crossover aligns with short-term weakness, it lacks strong historical precedent for reliably predicting sharp declines.

Longer-term MAs, however, remain supportive. The 50-, 100-, and 200-day MAs continue to trend upward, with the 200-day SMA acting as a foundational support at $2.58, per Tecronet's analysis. This divergence between short- and long-term indicators underscores a market in consolidation, where bears are testing the resolve of long-term holders.

October 2025: Key Support Tests and Momentum Reversals

In October, XRP faced critical junctures. On October 9, the price hovered near $2.85, a level constrained by short-term MAs but still above the 200-day SMA, according to a Blockchain.News article. Technical indicators like RSI and MACD showed bearish divergence, as that article noted. A week earlier, on October 8, XRP plummeted to $2.878 amid institutional selling, with traders bracing for a potential breakdown below the $2.85–$2.87 support band, as reported by CoinDesk. A failure to hold this level could trigger a cascade toward $2.70, a psychological threshold that would likely reignite broader bearish sentiment, the CoinDesk coverage warned.

Yet, not all is grim. A rebound from the $2.75 support level in late September sparked optimism, with analysts predicting a potential surge toward $5 by October 2025, according to Tecronet's analysis. Technical formations, such as a descending triangle pattern between $2.75 and $3.05, suggest a high-probability breakout scenario, according to a Currency Analytics piece. Traders are now watching whether XRP can close above $3.00-a level that would transform resistance into support for further gains, the Currency Analytics piece added.

Market Sentiment and the "Hold" Rating

The mixed signals have led to a cautious "Hold" rating for XRP, per TipRanks technical analysis. While the 7-day RSI at 54 indicates moderate bullish bias, the 14-day and 30-day price changes show bearish pressure, with declines of –9.13% and –3.72%, respectively, as Currency Analytics highlighted. The MACD's position below the signal line further reinforces bearish sentiment, a view reflected in TipRanks' technicals.

Analysts emphasize the importance of staying above $2.90 in the short term to avoid a temporary pullback, Tecronet's analysis cautions. If XRP breaks above $3.00, however, the path to $3.65–$4.50 over six months remains intact, driven by anticipated ETF approvals and institutional inflows, according to Tecronet.

Conclusion: A Tenuous Balance

XRP's technical profile in October 2025 reflects a market in transition. While bearish momentum and diverging indicators paint a cautionary picture, the asset's resilience above key support levels and potential breakout patterns offer a glimmer of hope. For now, the "Hold" rating is justified, but traders must remain vigilant. A clean close above $3.00 could reignite bullish momentum, while a breakdown below $2.70 would likely deepen the bearish narrative. In a market defined by volatility, patience and precision will be paramount.

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