XRP's Death Cross and Bearish Momentum: A Technical Breakdown of Near-Term Risks and Opportunities

In September 2025, XRP has entered a critical juncture marked by a confirmed death cross and a cascade of bearish technical indicators, raising concerns about further downside potential. The 50-day simple moving average (SMA) crossed below the 200-day SMA—a widely recognized bearish signal—while the price has retreated below $2.50 for four consecutive days, reflecting a 8.5% weekly decline XRP Drops 8.4% in a Week as Death Cross …^[1]. This confluence of technical and on-chain signals suggests a high probability of continued bearish momentum in the near term, though conflicting data points hint at potential volatility and recovery scenarios.

Technical Indicators Confirm Bearish Bias

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for XRP currently stands at 42.34, indicating moderate bearish pressure as selling momentum outpaces buying interest XRP Drops 8.4% in a Week as Death Cross …^[1]. On the Ichimoku Cloud chart, the price is trading below both the Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines, with the Kumo cloud turning red—a visual representation of heightened resistance XRP Drops 8.4% in a Week as Death Cross …^[1]. The Chikou Span, which lags the price by 26 periods, is also positioned below the cloud and price action, reinforcing the bearish narrative XRP Drops 8.4% in a Week as Death Cross …^[1].

A critical breakdown below the $2.30 support level could trigger a cascade to $2.07, with historical patterns suggesting a potential 25% decline toward $1.76 if the falling wedge on the weekly chart completes XRP Price Top is in? Network Metrics Put 385% Rally at Risk^[4]. Meanwhile, the XRP/BTC pair has mirrored this weakness, with its own death cross forming as the 50-day SMA crosses below the 200-day line, signaling continued underperformance against Bitcoin Death Cross Stirs Fear Among XRP Investors^[5].

Bearish Divergence and On-Chain Weakness

Technical divergence has emerged on the weekly chart, with the MACD registering a lower high while the price forms a higher high—a classic sign of waning upside momentum XRP Price Could End 2025 Above $4 — Key Reasons Revealed^[3]. This divergence suggests that even as XRP reaches new highs, the underlying strength of the rally is deteriorating. On-chain metrics corroborate this bearish outlook: the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio has dipped below its 200-day SMA, forming a second death cross—a historically significant signal for deeper corrections Death Cross Stirs Fear Among XRP Investors^[5].

Historical backtesting of MACD Death Cross entries shows a maximum drawdown of 45.4% and a maximum gain of 64.8% over 30 trading days from 2022 to nowBacktest results for MACD Death Cross strategy (2022–2025)^[6]. The most significant loss occurred in 2023, with a peak-to-trough decline of 35.2%, but the strategy recovered to achieve a 64.8% gain by the end of the backtested periodBacktest results for MACD Death Cross strategy (2022–2025)^[6]. Active address counts have plummeted by over 90% since March 2025, signaling reduced transactional demand and speculative activity XRP Price Top is in? Network Metrics Put 385% Rally at Risk^[4]. Whale accumulation, however, has surged, with 340 million XRP added to large wallets in two weeks, bringing total holdings to 7.84 billion tokens XRP Drops 8.4% in a Week as Death Cross …^[1]. This dichotomy between retail outflows and institutional accumulation creates conflicting signals for short-term price direction.

Bullish Contingencies and Key Resistance Levels

Despite the bearish consensus, some analysts argue that XRP could stage a recovery if it breaks above key resistance levels. A daily close above $2.30 would validate a bullish falling wedge pattern, potentially propelling the price toward $2.61–$2.72 XRP Drops 8.4% in a Week as Death Cross …^[1]. Additionally, a golden cross on the 4-hour chart—where the 20 EMA crossed above the 50 EMA—has sparked optimism among short-term traders XRP Price Could End 2025 Above $4 — Key Reasons Revealed^[3].

The $2.97–$3.10 zone is critical for long-term bulls, as holding this range could pave the way for a rally to $5 by late 2025 XRP Price Could End 2025 Above $4 — Key Reasons Revealed^[3]. Institutional adoption and regulatory clarity following the SEC's settlement have also injected bullish sentiment, with XRP ETFs and renewed investor confidence cited as potential catalysts XRP Drops 8.4% in a Week as Death Cross …^[1]. However, these scenarios hinge on XRP overcoming immediate resistance at $2.45 and avoiding a breakdown below $2.26 XRP Price Top is in? Network Metrics Put 385% Rally at Risk^[4].

Near-Term Outlook and Strategic Considerations

The near-term trajectory of XRP appears highly dependent on its ability to defend key support and resistance levels. A breakdown below $2.26 would likely accelerate the decline toward $2.07, while a sustained rebound above $2.45 could rekindle bullish momentum. Traders are advised to monitor the RSI for signs of oversold conditions (below 30) and the Ichimoku Cloud for potential cloud breaks that might signal a reversal XRP Drops 8.4% in a Week as Death Cross …^[1].

Conclusion

XRP's technical landscape in September 2025 is dominated by bearish signals, from the death cross to on-chain weakness and bearish divergences. While short-term volatility and potential recovery scenarios exist, the overall bias remains to the downside unless the price can decisively break above $2.45 and demonstrate renewed buying momentum. Investors should remain cautious, prioritizing risk management strategies such as stop-loss orders and position sizing to navigate the uncertain terrain ahead.