XRP's Death Cross and $3 Battleground Test Bullish Hopes Before ETF Debut

XRP, the third-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, is currently under pressure following the formation of a death cross on its hourly chart, raising concerns about short-term price volatility ahead of the anticipated launch of the first U.S. spot XRP ETF, the REX-Osprey XRP ETF (XRPR). The death cross, a technical indicator formed when the 50-period moving average dips below the 200-period moving average, has historically been associated with bearish momentum. The pattern emerged on XRP’s four-hour chart, signaling increased caution among traders and investors regarding near-term price movements.

As of the latest data, XRP is trading at $3.03, with a 1.11% increase in the last 24 hours. Despite this slight recovery, the coin has struggled to reclaim its recent high of $3.187, recorded on September 13. The price has since fallen to $2.95 on September 15, with bulls attempting to push the price back above $3. However, the level remains a critical battleground, as it represents the daily SMA 50. Analysts are closely monitoring whether this level will act as a support or be breached, potentially leading to further declines to $2.80 and beyond.

Support and resistance levels are key to understanding the short-term trajectory of XRP. Immediate support is seen at $2.96 and $2.80, with a critical threshold at $2.40 if the coin fails to stabilize. On the upside, resistance is forming at $3.60, $4.20, and $5.00, with long-term bullish scenarios projecting a potential $10 price target by 2026, assuming successful ETF-driven demand and institutional adoption. However, analysts caution that failure to hold above $2.80 could trigger a retracement to lower levels, delaying bullish expectations.

The upcoming launch of the REX-Osprey XRP ETF is a significant event, expected to provide broader market access for institutional and retail investors in the U.S. The fund will allocate 80% of its assets to XRP, with the remaining 20% invested in cash and equivalents, including U.S. Treasuries and government obligations. This ETF is the first of its kind for XRP and follows the successful launch of the REX-Osprey Dogecoin ETF (DOJE) earlier in September 2025, marking a pivotal moment in the evolution of crypto investment products.

Market sentiment remains mixed, with bulls encouraged by the rebound and the impending ETF debut but constrained by broader crypto market volatility and regulatory uncertainty. Coinglass data indicates $12.67 million in liquidations in the past 24 hours, with $10.8 million from long positions, suggesting that despite the pullback, traders remain optimistic. Meanwhile, the price of XRP has held steady near $3, with a market capitalization of $179.79 billion and a 24-hour trading volume of $5.44 billion, reflecting sustained interest in the asset.

As the market awaits the ETF’s official launch, the formation of the death cross and the ongoing tug-of-war around the $3 level highlight the fragile balance between bearish and bullish forces. Investors are advised to monitor key technical levels and the broader macroeconomic landscape, particularly as the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on September 17 could influence market sentiment.