XRP's Critical Support Test at $1.99 and the Path to a Sustained Bull Run

XRP is at a pivotal moment. The token has spent weeks hovering near the $1.99 support level, a price floor formed by Fibonacci retracement levels and historical price reactions. This level is more than a number-it's a psychological battleground where bulls and bears are locked in a high-stakes tug-of-war. If XRP holds here, it could signal the start of a re-accumulation phase and a potential breakout toward $3.31. If it breaks, the path to $1.40 becomes a real threat. But what's driving this standoff? A combination of technical reversal patterns and surging institutional demand is shaping the narrative.

Technical Reversal Patterns: A Battle for $1.99

The $1.99 level has emerged as a critical inflection point. According to a report by , this price acts as a "key support zone" that could determine whether XRP enters a sustained recovery phase. Technical indicators like the RSI (currently at 36) and MACD suggest waning bearish momentum, but a decisive close above $1.99 is needed to confirm a reversal.

Historically, XRP has shown resilience at this level. For instance, in December 2025, the token's velocity metric-a measure of transaction frequency-hit a yearly high of 0.0324, indicating active trading rather than hoarding. This surge in on-chain activity suggests that retail and institutional participants are testing the waters, with many likely accumulating during dips.

However, the risks are real. A breakdown below $1.99 could trigger a cascade to $1.77 or even $1.40, reinforcing a bearish structure. Conversely, a sustained rebound above $2.03-currently a short-term support-could reignite bullish sentiment and push XRP toward $2.10–$2.12. The key question is whether buyers can defend this level while institutional flows continue to pour in.

Institutional Demand: Whales, ETFs, and OTC Accumulation

While retail traders panic-sell, institutional players are quietly building positions. Yahoo Finance reports that XRP whales added 340 million tokens between September and November 2025, pushing total large wallet holdings above 7.8 billion XRP. This accumulation occurred as the token's price fell from its July high of $3.67, suggesting strategic buying by long-term investors.

The institutional narrative is further reinforced by ETF inflows. U.S.-listed XRP spot ETFs have recorded $861 million in inflows over 15 consecutive days, absorbing nearly 1% of XRP's total circulating supply. These ETFs are not speculative retail products but rule-based institutional vehicles, signaling confidence in XRP's regulatory clarity and utility.

OTC markets are also telling a story. Nearly 70% of large-block XRP trades since late November have occurred in over-the-counter (OTC) markets, where professional investors execute large orders without triggering price slippage. This trend suggests that institutional buyers are prioritizing liquidity and discretion, a hallmark of serious accumulation.

The Road to $10: A Confluence of Factors

For XRP to reach $10 or even $14–$15, three conditions must align:
1. Technical Validation: XRP must hold above $1.99 and break through $2.48 resistance decisively. A successful breakout would validate the re-accumulation phase and position the token for a larger upward move.
2. Institutional Momentum: ETF inflows and OTC activity must continue to outpace retail selling. The recent SEC settlement in August 2025 has already reduced regulatory uncertainty, making XRP more attractive to institutional capital.
3. On-Chain Strength: Exchange balances must continue to decline, indicating that XRP is being moved off exchanges into long-term wallets. This trend has been consistent in late 2025, with large wallets recording steady inflows.

Interestingly, XRP's correlation with Bitcoin has weakened in recent months. As noted by , XRP's price is increasingly driven by regulatory progress and institutional flows rather than broader market cycles. This decoupling is a positive sign for XRP's long-term prospects, as it reduces exposure to Bitcoin's volatility.

Conclusion: A High-Probability Setup

XRP's $1.99 support level is more than a technical milestone-it's a barometer for market sentiment. The confluence of on-chain strength, institutional demand, and weakening bearish momentum creates a high-probability setup for a sustained bull run. While short-term volatility is inevitable, the underlying fundamentals suggest that XRP is in the early stages of a re-accumulation phase.

If bulls can defend $1.99 and push through $2.48, the path to $10 becomes a realistic target. For investors, the key is to monitor both technical levels and institutional activity. In a market where patience and discipline are rewarded, XRP's next move could redefine its role in the crypto ecosystem.