XRP at Critical Juncture: Can TD Sequential and ETF Flows Trigger a 14-18% Rebound?

The XRP market is at a pivotal inflection point, where technical indicators and institutional demand dynamics are converging to create a compelling case for a short-to-midterm rebound. With the asset consolidating near $2.03 and institutional inflows surging, the interplay between TD Sequential signals and ETF-driven capital flows could catalyze a 14–18% price correction. Let's dissect the mechanics behind this potential reversal.

Technical Analysis: TD Sequential and Price Compression

The TD Sequential indicator, a tool for identifying trend exhaustion, has flashed a bullish signal on XRP's weekly chart, suggesting the prolonged bearish phase may be nearing its end. Historically, this indicator has proven reliable for XRP in 2025, preceding an 18% rebound in early December and a 24% decline after an August sell signal. Currently, XRP is testing a critical support level at $1.90, where a TD Sequential buy signal has emerged, hinting that seller pressure may be waning.

Price action reinforces this narrative. XRP is in a descending channel on the 60-minute chart, with successive lower highs and tightening compression, indicating an orderly decline rather than panic selling. However, each bounce near $2.04–$2.05 encounters distribution, acting as immediate resistance. If XRP reclaims $2.035, it could restore intraday momentum and open the path to $2.50. Conversely, a breakdown below $2.030 risks a retest of $2.020–$2.025, with psychological support at $2.00 as the final line of defense.

Social sentiment has also reached extreme fear levels, a classic contrarian signal. Santiment reports the highest bearish commentary in over five weeks, mirroring conditions that preceded a 22% rally in late November. While this creates fertile ground for a counter-trend bounce, sustained upside will require avoiding a return to the "Greed Zone," which previously capped momentum.

Institutional Demand: ETF Flows and Regulatory Tailwinds

Institutional demand for XRP has surged via U.S. spot ETFs, which have attracted $906 million in net inflows since their launch, including an 11-day streak of positive flows. These ETFs-such as XRPI and XRPR from Grayscale and Franklin Templeton-have added a regulated, institutional-friendly avenue for XRP exposure, boosting market legitimacy. As of December 1, 2025, these funds collectively managed $723 million in assets, representing 0.60% of XRP's market cap.

The impact of these flows is structural. Exchange-held XRP supply has declined by 29%, signaling accumulation by institutional investors. Regulatory clarity from the SEC's Project Crypto framework has further accelerated adoption, enabling compliant ETF launches and reducing legal uncertainty. Analysts project that maintaining weekly inflows of $100–$150 million could push XRP toward $3.50–$3.80 by the end of the cycle, with aggressive scenarios targeting $5.00.

Convergence of Forces: A 14–18% Rebound Scenario

The alignment of technical and institutional factors creates a high-probability setup for a rebound. If the TD Sequential buy signal is confirmed by a close above $2.035 and ETF inflows continue, XRP could see a 14–18% rally to $2.38–$2.40. This would align with historical rebounds triggered by similar technical setups and institutional buying cycles.

However, risks remain. A breakdown below $1.90 would invalidate the TD Sequential signal and expose the $1.80 level, where further distribution could dominate. Additionally, a return to the "Greed Zone" could stifle momentum, emphasizing the need for sustained institutional participation.

Conclusion: A Calculated Bet on Resilience

XRP's current juncture is defined by a delicate balance between technical exhaustion and institutional demand. The TD Sequential signal and ETF inflows present a compelling case for a near-term rebound, but success hinges on price action confirming the reversal and institutional flows maintaining their trajectory. For investors, this is a calculated opportunity to capitalize on a market at a crossroads-where history, sentiment, and capital flows could converge to unlock value.