XRP's Critical Juncture: Can Buyers Defend $1.80 Amid Deepening Sell Pressure?

XRP, the 10th-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, finds itself at a pivotal inflection point in December 2025. The token has been trading in a volatile range around the $1.80 psychological support level, a zone that has historically acted as a floor for buyer accumulation. However, mounting sell pressure, exacerbated by on-chain distribution trends and a weakening broader market, raises critical questions: Can XRP's buyers defend this level? And what does the on-chain data reveal about the token's near-term trajectory?

Technical Analysis: A Bearish Structural Shift

XRP's price action in December 2025 paints a picture of capitulation. After peaking at $3.66 earlier in the year, the token has fallen roughly 50%, settling near $1.85 as of late December according to Coindesk. This decline has been accompanied by a breakdown of key technical levels. The 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs) now form a stacked resistance barrier above the current price, with the 50-day SMA slowing near $2.35. Meanwhile, support has stabilized in the $2.00–$2.05 range, where buyers have repeatedly intervened with long lower wicks. A breakdown below this zone could expose XRP to a test of the $1.80–$1.87 demand band-a critical area where historical buying interest may emerge.

The descending channel pattern formed by XRP's price action further reinforces bearish momentum. Failed attempts to reclaim resistance near $1.93 suggest weakening buyer conviction. If the $1.80 level is breached, analysts warn of a potential freefall toward $1.00, though this scenario is deemed improbable under normal market conditions.

On-Chain Metrics: Distribution, Velocity, and Exchange Inflows

On-chain data reveals a stark shift in holder behavior. Daily deposits to major exchanges like Binance surged to 116 million XRP on December 19, signaling a transition from accumulation to distribution. This trend is amplified by a declining whale ratio, indicating that large holders are contributing less to exchange inflows compared to smaller participants according to CryptoQuant. Such dynamics often precede price declines, as increased supply on exchanges fuels selling pressure.

A notable exception to this bearish narrative is XRP's on-chain velocity, which hit a yearly high of 0.0324 on December 2. This metric, which measures how frequently XRP moves across the network, reflects heightened economic activity and liquidity. While this suggests the token is being used in real-world transactions, it does not necessarily counteract the downward price trend.

Order book analysis offers a glimmer of hope for buyers. Passive limit orders above $1.00 indicate a strong base of accumulated demand. Additionally, XRP has benefited from sustained institutional interest, with spot ETFs recording a 25-day streak of net positive inflows as of December 19. This institutional demand could act as a buffer against further declines, even as retail selling persists.

The $1.80 Support Level: A Make-or-Break Test

The $1.80–$1.87 range represents a critical psychological and technical battleground. Historically, this zone has seen robust buying activity, with long lower wicks and order book depth suggesting a high likelihood of a rebound. However, defending this level will require a coordinated effort from both retail and institutional buyers.

If XRP fails to hold above $1.80, the token could enter a freefall phase, mirroring the 2022 bear market. Conversely, a successful defense here-coupled with renewed ETF inflows-could catalyze a rebound toward $2.00 and beyond. The outcome will hinge on two factors: (1) whether exchange inflows reverse to accumulation and (2) whether Bitcoin's lackluster performance stabilizes to provide broader market support.

Conclusion: A High-Stakes Scenario

XRP's December 2025 price action underscores a precarious balance between bearish distribution and potential buyer resilience. While technical indicators and on-chain metrics point to deepening sell pressure, the $1.80 support level remains a critical fulcrum. Investors must closely monitor exchange inflow trends, order book depth, and institutional ETF activity to gauge the likelihood of a rebound. For now, XRP's fate hangs in the balance-a test of market conviction in a token with a unique position in the crypto ecosystem.