XRP at a Critical Juncture: Will $1.85 Hold and What Does It Mean for Long-Term Investors?

XRP, the 10th-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, finds itself at a pivotal moment as it tests the $1.85 support level in late November 2025. This critical juncture is shaping up to be a defining moment for both short-term traders and long-term investors, with technical indicators, whale activity, and broader market sentiment converging to create a high-stakes scenario.

Technical Analysis: Bearish Control and the $1.85 Threshold

XRP's price action has been increasingly bearish, with the token falling below $2.00 and trading at $1.88 as of late November 2025. The $1.85–$1.90 zone has historically acted as a key support area, having withstood multiple tests since the November 2024 breakout according to analysts. However, recent weakness below $1.93-a level that previously held firm-has raised alarms among analysts according to reports.

Trading volume has surged to 246% above the 24-hour average, signaling aggressive participation from larger market players. This surge in volume, coupled with a breakdown below critical levels, suggests bearish control. If XRP fails to defend $1.85, the next line of defense lies at $1.80, with a potential 50% drop to $1.00 looming as a worst-case scenario according to analyst warnings. Peter Brandt, a prominent technical analyst, has highlighted a double-top pattern on the weekly chart, warning that a sustained move below $2.00 could trigger a sharp decline toward $1 according to technical analysis.

The $1.85 level is also a liquidity hotspot, with over $450 million in bid orders concentrated between $1.87 and $1.85 according to technical analysis. A break below this threshold could trigger cascading long liquidations, accelerating the downward spiral. While some analysts, like Trader Niels, point to bullish divergence on the daily timeframe as a potential catalyst for a rebound above $2.20, the immediate technical outlook remains precarious.

Whale Activity: Contrasting Signals in a Volatile Market

On-chain data reveals a mixed picture of whale behavior in November 2025. Over 48 hours, whale wallets offloaded nearly 200 million XRP (~$400 million), exacerbating short-term selling pressure according to market reports. This activity coincided with XRP's slide toward $1.91, underscoring the influence of large holders on price dynamics.

However, not all whale activity is bearish. Between September and November 2025, large holders accumulated 340 million XRP, pushing total whale holdings above 7.8 billion tokens according to financial data. This accumulation occurred amid retail panic during a broader market correction that saw XRP plummet from a peak of $3.67 to below $2 by mid-December according to market analysis. On-chain indicators like the XRP Spot Taker CVD confirmed strategic positioning by whales, with taker-buy dominance and rising transaction volumes observed during periods of weak price action according to technical analysis. Such signals are often interpreted as early signs of a potential market recovery.

Implications for Long-Term Investors

For long-term investors, the battle for $1.85 is more than a technical milestone-it's a litmus test for XRP's resilience. A successful defense of this level could stabilize the price and pave the way for a rebound, particularly if whale accumulation continues. Historical parallels, such as XRP's 2023–2024 consolidation phase before its late-2024 surge according to technical analysis, suggest that prolonged bearish pressure might precede a strong upward move.

Conversely, a breakdown below $1.85 could trigger a wave of panic selling and force investors to reassess their positions. The broader market's risk-off sentiment and insufficient institutional interest according to market reports further complicate the outlook. Long-term holders must weigh the risks of a 50% drop against the potential for a rebound if whales continue to accumulate and the market stabilizes.

Conclusion: Navigating Uncertainty with Discipline

XRP's current juncture demands a disciplined approach. While the immediate technical outlook is bearish, the interplay between whale activity and historical price patterns offers a glimmer of hope for a recovery. Long-term investors should monitor the $1.85 level closely, using it as a key decision point. If this support holds and whale accumulation persists, XRP could retest higher levels in the coming months. However, a failure to defend $1.85 would likely necessitate a strategic reassessment, emphasizing the importance of risk management in this volatile environment.