XRP's Critical $2.41 Test: A Make-or-Break Moment for the Bull Case

XRP is at a pivotal juncture as it tests the $2.41 resistance level-a price point where technical and on-chain dynamics converge to determine whether the recent bullish momentum can sustain its trajectory. Over the past month, XRP has surged 33% from its December 31 lows, rebounding from a triple bottom pattern near $1.77 and establishing a structural base for a potential breakout. However, the $2.41 zone is not merely a technical threshold; it is a psychological battleground where profit-taking pressure and accumulation activity collide.

Technical Validation of the $2.41 Level

From a technical perspective, the $2.41 level is fortified by historical price action and key indicators. On February 8, 2025, XRP traded at this level with a market valuation of $139 billion and a daily trading volume of $7 billion, reflecting significant market activity. The price had oscillated between $2.30 and $2.40 during this period, signaling a consolidation phase ahead of potential volatility. While the RSI stood at 37.57 (neutral) and the MACD at -0.09 (bearish), long-term moving averages like the 100-period EMA (2.18) and 200-period SMA (1.33) hinted at underlying bullish strength.

Currently, the RSI is at 66.7 on the daily timeframe, indicating strong bullish momentum without overbought conditions. The MACD histogram remains positive at 0.05, confirming bullish momentum, though its small size suggests the impulsive phase of the trend is waning. Volume data further validates this: spot trading has surged to $7.07–$8.21 billion, 57–147% above the 30-day average, signaling robust participation. For the bull case to hold, XRP must close above $2.41 cleanly. A successful breakout would target $2.69 (13% higher), while a breakdown could expose support at $2.26 and $1.90.

On-Chain Insights: Accumulation vs. Profit-Taking

On-chain data reveals a tug-of-war between accumulation and profit-taking. Long-term holders increased their net holdings by over 420% during the rally from $1.77, but this accumulation has slowed recently, indicating buyers are becoming more selective as prices rise. The $2.41 zone is also a cost-basis wall: approximately 1.56 billion XRP were accumulated between $2.39 and $2.41, creating a supply cluster where many holders may sell to break even. This overhead supply could intensify selling pressure if the price revisits the zone.

Address activity further underscores the significance of this level. In mid-June 2025, XRP's daily active addresses spiked by 1,609% to 547,000, driven by Ripple's partnerships and growing network engagement. Analysts suggest that if XRP holds above $2.10, it could target $2.35–$2.41, linking increased on-chain activity to potential price breakouts. However, the Network Value to Transactions (NVT) Ratio has spiked, and long-term holders are beginning to sell off, signaling potential overvaluation and reduced confidence in near-term gains.

Historical Context and Fibonacci Retracements

Historical price action around $2.41 provides additional context. In early 2025, XRP's sideways movement between $2.30 and $2.40 indicated a consolidation phase, with mixed technical indicators suggesting uncertainty. Today, the 20-day EMA is approaching the 50-day EMA, signaling a potential bullish crossover that historically supports sustained trends. Meanwhile, Fibonacci retracement levels highlight the $2.04 region as a critical support zone during short-term consolidations. This level aligns with the 0.236–0.382 retracement of the recent impulse leg and could act as a psychological floor if the price corrects.

Institutional Activity and Future Outlook

Looking ahead, institutional activity will play a decisive role in XRP's trajectory. Analysts predict at least two major pilot programs in 2026 and a surge in tokenized assets and stablecoins on the XRPL. However, these developments hinge on XRP's ability to clear $2.41. A failure to do so could trigger a deeper correction, exposing the $1.90 support level and undermining the bull case. Conversely, a clean breakout would reduce overhead supply and validate the $2.69 target, aligning with more aggressive 2025 price predictions of $5.10.

Conclusion

XRP's $2.41 test is a make-or-break moment for the bull case. Technical indicators, on-chain metrics, and historical price action all point to the significance of this level. While the current surge in volume and accumulation by long-term holders bode well, the overhead supply wall and bearish RSI divergence on the 4-hour chart caution against complacency. Investors must monitor whether XRP can close above $2.41 with conviction or if profit-taking will force a retest of key supports. The outcome will not only determine short-term price direction but also shape the broader narrative for XRP's 2025–2026 roadmap.